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How to challenge assumptions
How to generate new ideas
How to break out of traditional thinking patterns
The notion of path, as opposed to outcome, indicates that it is not a mere MBA-style scenario analysis, but the examination of a sequence of scenarios along the course of time.
We are not concerned with what the investor's worth would be in, say, a year, but rather of the heart-wrenching ride she may experience during that period.
4
37 reads
MORE IDEAS ON THIS
For an idea to have survived so long across so many cycles is indicative of its relative fitness. Noise, at least some noise,was filtered out.
People tend to infer that because some inventions have revolutionized our lives that inventions are good to endorse and we should favor the new over...
4
27 reads
It is frequently said in the markets, Bad trades catch up with you.
Mathematicians of probability give that a fancy name: ergodicity. It means, roughly, that (under certain conditions), very long sample paths would end up resembling each other.
5
33 reads
There is no rational reason to keep a painting you would not buy at its current market rate.
5
23 reads
Quality of a decision cannot be solely judged based on its outcome.
The epic poet (Homer) did not judge his heroes by the result: heroes won and lost battles in a manner that was totally independent of their own valor; their fate depended upon totally external forces, generally the explicit...
5
35 reads
It does not matter how frequently something succeeds if failure is too costly to bear. ( Like playing russian roulette)
4
47 reads
A negative pang is not offset by a positive one (some behavioral economists estimate the negative effect to be up to 2.5 the magnitude of a positive one). It leads to an emotional deficit.
4
22 reads
Over a short time increment, one observes the variability of the portfolio (variance), not the returns. Our emotions are not designed to understand the point. We think with our emotions and there is no way around it.
It serves better to check portfolios at sufficiently large intervals t...
5
20 reads
I can use data to disprove a proposition, never to prove one. I can use history to refute a conjecture, never to affirm it.
There are only two types of theories
1. Theories that are known to be wrong, as they were tested and adequately rejected.
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21 reads
CURATED FROM
IDEAS CURATED BY
I’m a generalist, philosopher, writer, tutor, paralegal, strategist, researcher, Bohemian, bibliophile, an intellectual and an analyst.
Have you ever heard about people say these words 'don't be fooled by numbers, the mind wants you to see what you see.'
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