The Rashomon Effect - Deepstash
What Is Opportunity Cost

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The impact of opportunity cost on personal and professional life

Evaluating the benefits and drawbacks of different choices

Understanding the concept of opportunity cost

What Is Opportunity Cost

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The Rashomon Effect

The Rashomon Effect

Even when people experience the same event at the same time, if you ask them about it, you will often get two very different accounts about what happened.

That’s because the way we interpret the world is not only a function of the objective experience but includes how we see and choose to understand the world.


907 reads


Thinking In Bets: The Buddy System

It is important to have a go-to group of people with a common interest in thinking in bets.

The characteristics of a good group to practice truth-seeking with:

  • A focus on accuracy (over confirmation), which includes rewarding truth-seeking, objectivity, and open-mindedness wi...


878 reads


Resulting means judging the quality of a decision based on the quality of the result.

Our tendency is to equate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome. The prevents us from accurately assessing the quality of our decisions and the role of luck in the ...


1.24K reads


“Improving decision quality is about increasing our chances of good outcomes, not guaranteeing them.”



1.68K reads

Blind-Spot Bias

People are better at recognizing biased reasoning in others but are blind to bias in themselves. 

  • Being smart can actually make bias worse. Blind-spot bias is worse the smarter you are.
  • Being smart and aware of your capacity for irrationality alone doesn’t help...


961 reads

How We Form Our Beliefs

How We Form Our Beliefs

This is how we think we form our beliefs:

  • We hear something
  • We think about it and then determine whether if it is true or false
  • We form our belief

This is how we actually form our beliefs:


    982 reads

    All Decisions Are Bets

    A bet is a decision about an uncertain future. Thus, most of the decisions in your life – switching jobs, choosing a partner, selecting your field of study, not doing something – are bets.

    They’re choices that you make in the face of an uncertain future.


    1.18K reads

    Scenario Planning

    Scenario Planning

    Scenario planning is a productive skill to develop in decision making because:

    • It reminds us that the future is uncertain, giving a more realistic view of the world
    • It prepares us for how to respond to different outcomes that might respond from our initial decisions
    • Ant...


    824 reads


    “Thinking in bets starts with recognizing that there are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out: the quality of our decisions and luck. Learning to recognize the difference between the two is what thinking in bets is all about.”



    1.43K reads

    How To Engage In Truth-Seeking

    • Express uncertainty: If we start by making clear our uncertainty, our audience is more likely to understand that the discussion held does not always have to be about right or wrong but about openness to different perspectives.
    • Lead with assent: Every...


    857 reads


    “In most of our decisions, we are not betting against another person. Rather, we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing.”



    2.17K reads


    “What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge. That state of knowledge, in turn, is some variation of ‘I’m n...



    1.08K reads

    Life is Poker, Not Chess

    Life is Poker, Not Chess

    Life is not like chess. Chess contains no hidden information and very little luck.

    Life is more like poker. You could make the smartest, most careful decision and still have it blow up in your face.


    1.27K reads

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    The Real Source Of Harm - Day 201

    • Our reaction is what actually decides whether harm has occurred. If we feel that we've been wronged and get angry, of course, that's how it will seem. If we raise our voice because we feel we're being confronted, naturally a confrontation will ensue.
    • But if we retain control of ourse...

    Validating and empathizing

    We get into arguments because we want to feel that the other person respects what we’re experiencing. Saying "I can see where you’re coming from" is a great form of validation.

    When your experience is acknowledged, you feel sane. So even if you don't agree with the other point of ...

    Complexity Bias

    We are inclined to believe that complex solutions and explanations are better than simple ones. The perception of complexity often leads to avoidance.

    What you can do about it:

    • Instead of seeking to understand a concept fully,


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