The Origin And History Of Projection Bias

The projection bias is attributed to a 2003 paper titled “Projection bias in predicting future utility”, by researchers George Loewenstein, Ted O’Donoghue, and Matthew Rabin (published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 118, Issue 4, pages 1209–1248).

The associated study was also published as a working paper in 2000, and mentioned in other publications around that time period. Furthermore, evidence of this phenomenon has also been presented in other papers published around that time and earlier.