What Gates got wrong

In his keynote, many of the ideas Gates spoke about became a reality, such as smartphones, Google Maps and other tools. Yet, there are ways in which Gate's tech ideas failed.

• Gates was overly optimistic about when these innovations would happen. In many cases, it happened well after 2005.
• The products Microsoft envisioned and made, like the Pocket PCs, Tablet PCs, and Auto PCs, were not enduring hits. Other companies did a much better job.

Dismissing Gate's visions as fantasy would have been a bad idea. But it would also be bad to confuse Gates's confidence with the ability to predict the future.