Embracing Critical Thinking - Deepstash

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How the Very Best Strategists Decide

Embracing Critical Thinking

Strategy development and internal reviews often center on precedents, trends, and due diligence. They address"what will happen."  Change the question to "what may happen" :

  • Role-play other parties.
  • Listen to assumptions in the way a strategy is supposed to work.
  • Watch out for confirmation bias, overconfidence, survivor bias, and groupthink.
  • Forecast your competitors' results.
  • Beware of missing pieces in the tools you use.

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SIMILAR ARTICLES & IDEAS:

Considering risk
It is not always possible to anticipate the effects of unexpected events that occur throughout the business cycle.

But those who routinely examine the way risks propagate across the entir...

Risk along the value chain

Most companies only examine the most direct risks facing a company and tend to neglect secondary risks that can have an even greater impact.

Companies need to learn to evaluate aftereffects that could weaken whole value chains.

Competitors

All differences in business models can create the potential for competitive risk exposure. This does not mean that a company should imitate its competitors, but that it should consider the risk when they have different strategies.

Do some math

You make one decision, wait, make a second decision, and then make a compromise between the two.

Averaging the two judgments tends to outperform trying to identify the better of the tw...

Pair a good decision with a bad one

If you only allow yourself your vice while you’re simultaneously being virtuous,  you’ll spend more time doing things that are good for you and less time doing the “bad” things. 

The researchers call this “pre-bundling” and say it allows people to couple instantly gratifying activities (such as watching trashy TV) with a behavior that’s beneficial in the long term but requires willpower (like working out).

Take things one at a time

Next time you’re faced with a problem with many possible answers, pinpoint your end goals and then come up with a solution for each.

This is likely to lead to the generation of a diverse set of options covering multiple categories of solutions.

Decisions Using Our Instinct
Decisions Using Our Instinct

Business leaders often make important decisions that defy any logical analysis. This process may be termed as a gut instinct, a hunch, or an inner voice.

Our emotions and feelings may b...

Patterns In Randomness

Our gut instinct or intuition can come in many forms, like detecting patterns in places where other people only see randomness or having a sudden flash of brilliance which goes against the grain but feels right.

Gathering enough data to make a rational decision also takes up a lot of time, and in today's fast-paced world, by the time one procures all data, the decision becomes antiquated.

Subconscious And Conscious Brain

Our subconsious mind continuously processes information, even when we sleep, which our conscious mind finally learns or infers, lighting a bulb inside us.

We know the gut feeling is true because our 'right brain'(intuition and emotion-based) already knew the revelation that our left brain (logic and consciousness-based) now has come to know.