Forecasting and Memory - Deepstash
Behavioral Economics, Explained

Learn more about psychology with this collection

How to make rational decisions

The role of biases in decision-making

The impact of social norms on decision-making

Behavioral Economics, Explained

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Forecasting and Memory

When we make plans for the future, we are often too optimistic.

For example, we are subject to committing the planning fallacy by underestimating how long it will take us to complete a task and ignoring past experience. Similarly, when we try to predict how we will feel in the future, we may overestimate the intensity of our emotions.

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1.21K reads

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Bounded Rationality

Bounded Rationality

Bounded rationality is a term associated with Herbert Simon’s work of the 1950s. According to this view, our minds must be understood relative to the environment in which they evolved. There are restrictions to human information processing, due to limits in knowledge and computa...

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Mental Accounting

Mental Accounting

The economist Richard Thaler coined the concept of mental accounting. According to Thaler:

  • People think of value in relative rather than absolute terms. They derive pleasure not just from an object’s value, but also the quality of the deal.
  • People fail to fully consider opport...

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Time Discounting and Present Bias

Present events are weighted more heavily than future ones; for example, many people prefer to receive £100 now over £110 in a month’s time.

Discounting is non-linear, and its rate is not constant over time. People’s preference for receiving £100 a week...

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Information Avoidance

Information Avoidance

Information avoidance in behavioral economics refers to situations in which people choose not to obtain knowledge that is freely available.

Active information avoidance includes physical avoidance, inattention, the biased interpretation of information (see also confirmati...

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Too Much Information: Choice Overload

Humans’ bounded rationality is particularly well illustrated by the concept of choice overload. This phenomenon occurs as a result of too many choices being available to consumers.

Overchoice has been associated with unhappiness, decision fatigue, going with the default option, as ...

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Rational Choice

In an ideal world, our decisions would be the result of a careful weighing of costs and benefits and informed by existing preferences. We would always make optimal decisions.

The theory of rational choice assumes that human actors have stable preferences and engage in maxi...

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Behavioral Economics (BE)

Behavioral Economics (BE)

BE uses psychological experimentation to develop theories about human decision-making and has identified a range of biases as a result of the way people think and feel.

BE is trying to change the way economists think about people’s perceptions of value and expressed prefere...

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Social Dimensions

  • Trust is one of the explanations for discrepancies between actual behavior and that predicted by a model of self-interested actors, makes social life possible, and permeates economic relationships.
  • Dishonesty is the product of situations as well as both internal and external reward m...

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Diversification Bias and the Empathy Gap

Diversification Bias and the Empathy Gap

Time inconsistency also occurs when our present self fails to predict accurately the preferences of our future self, a point illustrated well by diversification bias.

When shopping for multiple future consumption episodes, I may choose the variety pack of cereal, only ...

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Dual-System Theory

Dual-System Theory

Daniel Kahneman uses a dual-system theoretical framework to explain why our judgments and decisions often do not conform to formal notions of rationality.

  • System 1 consists of thinking processes that are intuitive, automatic, experience-based, and relatively unconscious.
  • Sys...

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Prospect Theory

Our willingness to take risks is influenced by the way in which choices are framed, i.e. it is context-dependent.

Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman are perhaps best known for the development of prospect theory and published a number of papers that show that decisions are not always opt...

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Limited Information: The Importance of Feedback

Experience, good information, and prompt feedback are key factors that enable people to make good decisions.

  • Climate change, for example, has been cited as a particularly challenging problem in relation to experience and feedback. Climate change is invisible, diffuse, and a long-t...

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Social Norms

Social Norms

  • Our preferences are not simply a matter of basic tastes; they are also influenced by norms, as manifested in gender roles, for example.
  • Social norms signal appropriate behavior or actions taken by the majority of people (although what is deemed ‘appropriate’ is itself subject to cont...

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The planning fallacy

The planning fallacy

The planning fallacy is the likelihood to underestimate the time it will take to finish a future task despite knowing that similar projects have taken longer in the past. For example, writers underestimate how long it will take to complete a novel; product managers miscalcula...

The Impact Bias

The Impact Bias

It's present when we tend to overestimate the length or intensity of happiness that major events will create. The Impact Bias is one example of affective forecasting, which is a social psychology phenomenon that refers to our generally terrible ability as humans to predict our future emoti...

The Planning Fallacy And Social Pressure

The workplace is a competitive zone, and enthusiastic workers take an unfair lead even though their plans are unrealistic and overly optimistic.

You don’t need to succumb to the pressure, once you understand how the planning fallacy works. The outcome will provide clarity to all.

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