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The planning fallacy

The planning fallacy

The planning fallacy is the likelihood to underestimate the time it will take to finish a future task despite knowing that similar projects have taken longer in the past. For example, writers underestimate how long it will take to complete a novel; product managers miscalculate how long a new feature will take to build.

Studies show that we underestimate how long it will take even when we know we're likely to underestimate timelines.

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Overcoming the planning fallacy

  • Break projects down into smaller pieces and estimate how long each part will take.
  • Add 20% to your estimated completion time. It is better to plan for the unexpected than to be surprised by it.
  • Use historical data to make better predi...

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The Planning Fallacy

The Planning Fallacy

blog.doist.com

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hollyy

Productivity tips and tricks are my jam.

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MORE LIKE THIS

The Planning Fallacy

We tend to underestimate the time it will take to complete a future task despite knowing that previous tasks have taken longer.

What you can do about it:

  • Break projects down into smaller parts and estimat...

The planning fallacy

The planning fallacy

Is our tendency to underestimate the amount of time it will take to complete a task. Estimation mistakes can usually be attributed to 2 key factors:

  • Failing to consider how long it’s taken us to complete similar tasks in the past.
  • Assuming that we won’t run int...

The planning fallacy

The planning fallacy

The term 'planning fallacy' was coined in 1977 and deals with how most of us are terrible at estimating how long a project will take. We are overly optimistic but terrible at predicting the future. If the project has a budget, we may underestimate that expense to...

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