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The planning fallacy
The planning fallacy is the likelihood to underestimate the time it will take to finish a future task despite knowing that similar projects have taken longer in the past. For example, writers underestimate how long it will take to complete a novel; product managers miscalculate how long a new feature will take to build.
Studies show that we underestimate how long it will take even when we know we're likely to underestimate timelines.
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Overcoming the planning fallacy
- Break projects down into smaller pieces and estimate how long each part will take.
- Add 20% to your estimated completion time. It is better to plan for the unexpected than to be surprised by it.
- Use historical data to make better predi...
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The Planning Fallacy
We tend to underestimate the time it will take to complete a future task despite knowing that previous tasks have taken longer.
What you can do about it:
- Break projects down into smaller parts and estimat...
The planning fallacy
Is our tendency to underestimate the amount of time it will take to complete a task. Estimation mistakes can usually be attributed to 2 key factors:
- Failing to consider how long it’s taken us to complete similar tasks in the past.
- Assuming that we won’t run int...
The planning fallacy
The term 'planning fallacy' was coined in 1977 and deals with how most of us are terrible at estimating how long a project will take. We are overly optimistic but terrible at predicting the future. If the project has a budget, we may underestimate that expense to...
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