In 2020, Resolve To Ask "Why?"
In a range of computer simulation experiments conducted by theoretical psychologist Dietrich Dörner, some common traits were found in the bad decision-makers:
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There are many known psychological processes that cause individuals and organizations to miss the signs of a coming crisis – even when the signs are noticeable.
One reason is known as the...
One possible reason for the "optimism bias" is found in the way we learn new information. People are quicker to change their beliefs when the information is better than expected, compared to information that is worse than expected.
Outcomes bias it thinking that because things turned out reasonably good, we can underestimate how close they came to going wrong.
In the past 20 years, there have been two outbreaks of diseases caused by the new viruses. The outbreak of 2003 killed 774 people before it was contained, and the Mers outbreak in 2012 has killed 858. The new virus has far surpassed both.
It drives us to engage in activities that we find more meaningful than those at hand. Without it, we’d be perpetually excited by everything.
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When we’re consciously doing things we’re using the “executive attention network, ” the parts of the brain that control and inhibit our attention. The attention network makes it possible for us to relate directly to the world presently around us.
By contrast, when our minds wander, we activate the brain’s “default mode network, ” which is the brain “at rest”; not focused on an external, goal-oriented task. In this mode, we still tap about 95% of the energy we use when our brains are engaged in focused thinking.