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In a range of computer simulation experiments conducted by theoretical psychologist Dietrich Dörner, some common traits were found in the bad decision-makers:
SIMILAR ARTICLES & IDEAS:
For a meeting to meet this outcome, or objective, you have to be clear about what it is.
A common decision-making problem is failing to have enough imagination with regards to what could go wrong or falling victim to simple overconfidence.
Envision the future. There’s evidence that this exercise can broaden your outlook and highlight problems that might not come to mind otherwise.
... when you're hungry, or sleepy, or angry.
Research has shown that our susceptibility to bias increases when we’re stressed, whether because of exhaustion, hunger, or a heightened emotional state.
Delaying a crucial decision, if possible, might be preferable to making it under conditions of stress.
There are many known psychological processes that cause individuals and organizations to miss the signs of a coming crisis – even when the signs are noticeable.
One reason is known as the...
One possible reason for the "optimism bias" is found in the way we learn new information. People are quicker to change their beliefs when the information is better than expected, compared to information that is worse than expected.
Outcomes bias it thinking that because things turned out reasonably good, we can underestimate how close they came to going wrong.
In the past 20 years, there have been two outbreaks of diseases caused by the new viruses. The outbreak of 2003 killed 774 people before it was contained, and the Mers outbreak in 2012 has killed 858. The new virus has far surpassed both.