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In 2020, Resolve To Ask "Why?"
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Bad Decision Makers
In a range of computer simulation experiments conducted by theoretical psychologist Dietrich Dörner, some common traits were found in the bad decision-makers:
- They focus on only one aspect of the problem, but most problems may be multidimensional.
- They jump haphazardly from one problem to another.
- They do not factor in the indirect consequences of their actions.
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Good Decision Makers
In the same experiment, there were traits discovered for good decision-makers:
- They tend to think and act holistically.
- Their approach towards a problem is systematic.
- They are willing to try diverse approaches, showing open-mindedness.
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Asking Why
Good Decision-makers always ask 'Why?' Asking 'Why?' several times gets to the core issue and provides us with insight into the real reason for solving a particular problem.
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SIMILAR ARTICLES & IDEAS:
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What makes meetings effective
- They achieve the meeting's objective.
- They take up a minimum amount of time.
- They leave participants feeling that a sensible process has been followed.
The Meeting's Objective
For a meeting to meet this outcome, or objective, you have to be clear about what it is.
To prepare an agenda, consider the following factors:
- Priorities – what absolutely must be covered?
- Results – what do you need to accomplish at the meeting?
- Participants – who needs to attend the meeting for it to be successful?
- Sequence – in what order will you cover the topics?
- Timing – how much time will spend on each topic?
- Date and time – when will the meeting take place?
- Place – where will the meeting take place?
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Decision making and biases
Experts have known for a while that ...
Mental time travel
A common decision-making problem is failing to have enough imagination with regards to what could go wrong or falling victim to simple overconfidence.
Envision the future. There’s evidence that this exercise can broaden your outlook and highlight problems that might not come to mind otherwise.
Don’t make an important decision
... when you're hungry, or sleepy, or angry.
Research has shown that our susceptibility to bias increases when we’re stressed, whether because of exhaustion, hunger, or a heightened emotional state.
Delaying a crucial decision, if possible, might be preferable to making it under conditions of stress.
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Missing the signs
There are many known psychological processes that cause individuals and organizations to miss the signs of a coming crisis – even when the signs are noticeable.
One reason is known as the...
Optimism bias
One possible reason for the "optimism bias" is found in the way we learn new information. People are quicker to change their beliefs when the information is better than expected, compared to information that is worse than expected.
- If people were told that lockdown would be eased in two weeks, people would quickly update their beliefs. But if experts said it would last longer, people would be less likely to update their beliefs. They will make statements like "I don't really believe it" or "things change."
- People may underestimate their personal risk of infection.
- People may fail to adopt precautions like social distancing.
Outcomes bias
Outcomes bias it thinking that because things turned out reasonably good, we can underestimate how close they came to going wrong.
In the past 20 years, there have been two outbreaks of diseases caused by the new viruses. The outbreak of 2003 killed 774 people before it was contained, and the Mers outbreak in 2012 has killed 858. The new virus has far surpassed both.