When certain events need to take place to achieve a desired outcome, we're overly optimistic that those events will happen. Here's why we should temper those expectations. *** Why are we so optimistic in our estimation of the cost and schedule of a project? Why are we so surprised when something inevitably goes wrong?
Broader categories are always more probable than their subsets. It's more likely someone has a pet than they have a cat. It's more likely someone likes coffee than they like cappuccinos. The extension rule in probability theory thus states that if B is a subset of A, B cannot be more probable than A.
Likewise, the probability of A and B cannot be higher than the probability of A or B. It is more probable that Linda is a bank teller than that she is a bank teller and active in the feminist movement.
We live in an age of information. In theory, we can learn everything about anyone or anything at the touch of a button. All this information should allow us to make super-informed, data-driven decisions all the time. But the widespread availability of information does not mean that you actually use it even if you have it.
Hey readers! Quick note before we jump in: This is a post about something I've been wanting to write about forever: careers. Society tells us a lot of things about what we should want in a career and what the possibilities are-which is weird because I'm pretty sure society knows very little about any of this.
Careers used to be kind of like a 40-year tunnel. You picked your tunnel, and once you were in, that was that. You worked in that profession for 40 years or so before the tunnel spit you out on the other side into your retirement.
Today’s career landscape isn’t a lineup of tunnels, it’s a massive, impossibly complex, rapidly changing science laboratory.