The “Over-extrapolation” fallacy: The future is not the same - Deepstash
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The “Over-extrapolation” fallacy: The future is not the same

Extrapolation is estimating the values of a variable based on known data. Scientists can look at the existing birthrate and use that data to extrapolate the future population. However, it's not a reliable method when dealing with finance and the economy.

For example:

  • If today is bad, you assume the future will worsen. 
  • If today is good, you assume the future will be even better.

Nothing lasts forever, not the bad or the good times.


18 reads


The “Hot hand” fallacy: When you can’t lose

The “Hot hand” fallacy: When you can’t lose

The “hot hand” fallacy is a cognitive bias that assumes a person who experiences a successful outcome has a greater chance of success if they continue. 

When you invest during a bull market, you may feel like a winner on every investment or trade. But hot streaks never last. It is unsustain...


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Stock market bubbles

Didier Sornette, a former professor of Entrepreneurial Risks at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, published a book,  Why Stock Markets Crash, and found that half to two-thirds of all bubbles crashed.

Stock market events repeat themselves. When fiscal policy is easy, and cr...


16 reads

Expectations during the formation of bubbles

Expectations during the formation of bubbles

When investors deal with an exceptional event, they often say, ”This time, it’s different.”  It is more likely to happen during the formation of bubbles.

For example, in 2021, investors and commentators said we were in a bubble for growth stocks and SPACs. While some said it was similar to ...


32 reads

The aware investor avoids losing all their money

The aware investor avoids losing all their money

Long-term investing is about ensuring you can keep investing. It's not about the right stocks, taking risks, buying low or selling high.

Smart investors stay in the game regardless of the conditions. They recognize patterns in the market and their own thinking, which is an important charact...


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Human Behaviour: The Planning Fallacy

We are bad at estimating the time it will take to accomplish a task, as we don’t take into account our distractions, procrastination, emergencies or delays.

To counter the planning fallacy, we need to assign blocks of time which are called ‘slacks’ by behavioural scientis...

Knowledge is not Enough When It Comes To Bad Habits

Just merely knowing something is good or bad for you is not going to give you any benefit, unless the implementation is done. Conscious knowledge cannot change your behavior, one has to make necessary changes to successfully act in self-control.

If you know that you will eat junk foo...


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