The “Over-extrapolation” fallacy: The future is not the same

Extrapolation is estimating the values of a variable based on known data. Scientists can look at the existing birthrate and use that data to extrapolate the future population. However, it's not a reliable method when dealing with finance and the economy.

For example:

• If today is bad, you assume the future will worsen. 
• If today is good, you assume the future will be even better.

Nothing lasts forever, not the bad or the good times.