Fifth: Consider what could go wrong.

Overconfidence and underconfidence are common and problematic. To calibrate them, weigh seven factors. 

1. First: Consider how you might be wrong.
2. Second: Assess the probability that you’re right.
3. Third: Calculate the expected value of an outcome.
4. Fourth: Define an...

“Honest, constructive feedback is so valuable that there’s only one way to respond: ‘Thank you’. ” (Rich Lyons, former dean of the Haas School of Business, UC Berkeley)

“Others’ disagreement is…a gift of great value, but it is not always easy to appreciate it.”

“Honestly communicating the real uncertainty about uncertain things is a viable strategy for aspiring leaders.”

To improve your predictions, ask other people whether they think something will happen and have them estimate the odds that they’re right. This works best with people trained how to see and measure uncertainty. Thinking through the likelihood of various outcomes and considering what happened in t...

“Well-calibrated confidence is the map that can guide your life choices about what to undertake.”

“Although it can be painful to admit that your critics are right, confronting our imperfections opens the way to improvement.”