Overconfidence and underconfidence are common and problematic. To calibrate them, weigh seven factors. <ol><li>First: Consider how you might be wrong.</li><li>Second: Assess the probability that you’re right.</li><li>Third: Calculate the expected value of an outcome.</li><li>Fourth: Define and measure performance.</li><li>Fifth: Consider what could go wrong.</li><li>Sixth: Tap others’ perspectives.</li><li>Seventh: Seek and believe the truth.</li></ol>

Perfectly Confident

“When a company is formulating strategy, it is useful to consider critiques, problems and likely reasons for failure.”

Fifth: Consider what could go wrong.

“Being able to explain the basis for your confident beliefs will make them more persuasive to others.”

Third: Calculate the expected value of an outcome.

“Honest, constructive feedback is so valuable that there’s only one way to respond: ‘Thank you’. ” (Rich Lyons, former dean of the Haas School of Business, UC Berkeley)

First: Consider how you might be wrong.

“Honestly communicating the real uncertainty about uncertain things is a viable strategy for aspiring leaders.”

Seventh: Seek and believe the truth.

“Others’ disagreement is…a gift of great value, but it is not always easy to appreciate it.”

Sixth: Tap others’ perspectives.

“Although it can be painful to admit t﻿hat your critics are right, confronting our imperfections opens the way to improvement.”

Fourth: Define and measure performance.

“Well-calibrated confidence is the map that can guide your life choices about what to undertake.”

Overconfidence and underconfidence are common and problematic. To calibrate them, weigh seven factors.

To improve your predictions, ask other people whether they think something will happen and have them estimate the odds that they’re right. This works best with people trained how to see and measure uncertainty. Thinking through the likelihood of various outcomes and considering what happened in the past can help you grasp the range of possibilities, make better forecasts and thus make better decisions.

Second: Assess the probability that you’re right.

An expert on the psychology of decision making at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business helps readers calibrate their confidence, arguing that some confidence is good, but overconfidence can hinder growth. A surge of confidence can feel fantastic—offering a rush of energy, even a dazzling vision of the future. It can give us courage and bolster our determination when facing adversity. But if that self-assurance leads us to pursue impossible goals, it can waste time, money, and energy. Self-help books and motivational speakers tell us that the more confident we are, the better. But this way of thinking can lead to enormous trouble. Decades of research demonstrates that we often have an over-inflated sense of self and are rarely as good as we believe. Perfectly Confident is the first book to bring together the best psychological and economic studies to explain exactly what confidence is, when it can be helpful, and when it can be destructive in our lives. Confidence is an attitude that takes into account both personal feelings and the facts. Don Moore identifies the ways confidence behaves in real life and raises thought-provoking questions. How optimistic should you be about an uncertain future? What justifies your confidence in something amorphous and subjective like your attractiveness or sense of humor? Moore reminds us that the key to success is to avoid being both over- and under-confident. In this essential guide, he shows how to become perfectly confident—how to strive for and maintain the well-calibrated, adaptive confidence that can elevate all areas of our lives.

An expert on the psychology of decision making at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business helps readers calibrate their confidence, arguing that some confidence is good, but overconfidence can hinder growth. A surge of confidence can feel fantastic—offering a rush of energy, even a dazzling vision of the future. It can give us courage and bolster our determination when facing adversity. But if that self-assurance leads us to pursue impossible goals, it can waste time, money, and energy. Self-help books and motivational speakers tell us that the more confident we are, the better. But this way of thinking can lead to enormous trouble.Decades of research demonstrates that we often have an over-inflated sense of self and are rarely as good as we believe. Perfectly Confident is the first book to bring together the best psychological and economic studies to explain exactly what confidence is, when it can be helpful, and when it can be destructive in our lives. Confidence is an attitude that takes into account both personal feelings and the facts. Don Moore identifies the ways confidence behaves in real life and raises thought-provoking questions. How optimistic should you be about an uncertain future? What justifies your confidence in something amorphous and subjective like your attractiveness or sense of humor? Moore reminds us that the key to success is to avoid being both over- and under-confident. In this essential guide, he shows how to become perfectly confident—how to strive for and maintain the well-calibrated, adaptive confidence that can elevate all areas of our lives.

Fifth: Consider what could go wrong.

Similar ideas to Fifth: Consider what could go wrong.

Analyze What Can Go Wrong

Consider your assumptions

#6 PRACTICE MISFORTUNE – ASK “WHAT COULD GO WRONG?”