Learn more about problemsolving with this collection
Understanding the importance of decision-making
Identifying biases that affect decision-making
Analyzing the potential outcomes of a decision
Consider your assumptions
Just because we know and understand the concept of conjunctive events bias, we are not automatically immune to it.
When we are planning, it is useful to run through our assumptions with this bias in mind. We should be more pessimistic about our plans and consider the worst-case scenario.
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The conjunctive events bias
We often overestimate the likelihood of events that must happen in conjunction with one another.
We are optimistic in our estimation of the cost and schedule and surprised when something inevitably goes wrong.
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The best plans often fail
A plan is like a system. A change in one component of a system will likely impact the functionality of other parts of the system.
The more steps involved in a plan, the higher the chance that something will go wrong and cause delays and setbacks. For this reason, home remodeling and ne...
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Conjunctive events
- Broader categories are always more probable than their subsets. It's more likely someone has a pet than they have a cat. It's more likely someone likes coffee than they like cappuccinos. The extension rule in probability theory thus states that if B is a subset of A, B cannot ...
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Never stop learning. Never stop educating yourself. When you stop learning, you stop growing & maturing!
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Pinpoint your biases
We all have some problematic thought patterns that we are unaware of.
- One is mind-reading, where you wrongly assume that whoever you're with is thinking negative thoughts about you.
- Another is personalising, making something about you when...
The many faces of the memory bias
- Rosy retrospection bias. We often remember the past as having been better than it really was.
- Consistency bias. We wrongly remember our past attitudes and behaviour as similar to our present attitudes and behaviour.
- Mood-congruent ...
How To Apply Negative Capability
- Embrace your ignorance. Become comfortable saying “I don’t know” — it is a form of courage and humility.
- Suspend your judgement. Keep on being a neutral observer, collect more information, consider various perspectives.
- Sit with your...
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