The best time to sell is when the economy is peaking, which is counterintuitive for many people. People want to believe that the good times are going to keep rolling.
JOSEPH H. ELLIS
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The book Ahead of the Curve by Joseph Ellis discusses improving economic forecasting by using the right indicators and tracking year-over-year data instead of short-term fluctuations. It argues that recession definitions are overrated, and that slowing growth is more damaging than commonly realized. The book advocates focusing on consumer spending as the main economic driver, and provides guidance on relating indicators like incomes, interest rates and stock markets to spending. It aims to help readers make better forecasts for economies, industries and companies.
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