There are lots of overnight tragedies. There are rarely overnight miracles.Progress happens too slowly for people to notice; setbacks happen too fast for people to ignore. Growth means compounding and that always takes time. Destruction is driven by single points of failure, which can happen in seconds.

Progress and setbacks

Yes, decisions should be made with facts. But in reality, to those directly involved, they’re made with contextualized facts (with things like social signaling, time horizon, office politics, government politics, year-end bonus targets, making up for past mistakes, insecurities, etc). The easiest way to answer the question “What should I do?” is usually to be guided by a story that makes sense to you. Not a statistic or pure facts, but a good tale.

Unsustainable things can sustain for a long time

“History never repeats itself. Man always does.”

The most important lessons from history are the takeaways that are so broad they can apply to other fields, other historical times, and other people. The point is that the more specific a lesson of history is, the less relevant it becomes.

History lessons

It occurs when people persuasive enough to make something grow don’t have the type of personality that allows them to stop before pushing too far (see all the dictators in history).Reversion to the mean is one of the most common stories in history. Part of the reason it happens is because the same personality traits that push people to the top also increase the odds of pushing them over the edge.

Reversion to the mean

One of the interesting parts of the Great Depressions from history is not just how the economy collapsed, but how quickly and dramatically people’s views changed when it did.People suffering from immediate, unexpected adversity are likely to adopt views they previously thought absurd. It’s not until your life is in full chaos (with your hopes and dreams your dreams unsure) that people begin taking ideas they’d never consider before seriously.

Adopting new views 

History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. Learn from the past, shape a better future.

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Philosophy

Understand yourself and those around you.

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Lessons of History

The most important lessons from history are the takeaways that are so broad they can apply to other fields, other eras, and other people. That's where lessons have leverage and are most likely to apply to your own life. But those things take some digging to find, often sitting layers below the main story.

Reversion to the mean

Similar ideas to Reversion to the mean

People Actually Say What They Mean

You Control Your Happiness

The survivorship bias