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Why Most Post-Crisis Predictions Will Be Totally Wrong

Bad Predictions

  • During 9/11, it was predicted that the event will permanently alter our sense of irony. In reality, 9/11 caused massive changes in air travel norms.

  • At the time of the 2009 financial crisis, Time Magazine declared that conspicuous consumption is now over. In reality, the economy made record gains after the 2009 dip.

  • Many others also predicted a long-term reluctance to spend. In reality, global sales of luxury items show an upward trend in the last 20 years.

  • Carmakers slashed production of SUVs, a symbol of excess, and just a ‘bubble’ according to an expert. In reality, Carmakers are slashing sedan production due to the high demand for SUVs.

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Why Most Post-Crisis Predictions Will Be Totally Wrong

Why Most Post-Crisis Predictions Will Be Totally Wrong

https://marker.medium.com/why-most-post-pandemic-predictions-will-be-totally-wrong-4e1bc1c71614

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Key Ideas

The Feature Presentation of 2020

Throughout history, the most significant and world-changing events emerge in a low-key manner, without warning. 2020 has one such event.

While a global pandemic is unfolding right before our eyes, there is a rush of predictions regarding the changes in our professional and personal lives, and if we go by history, most of these predictions will be inaccurate.

Bad Predictions

  • During 9/11, it was predicted that the event will permanently alter our sense of irony. In reality, 9/11 caused massive changes in air travel norms.

  • At the time of the 2009 financial crisis, Time Magazine declared that conspicuous consumption is now over. In reality, the economy made record gains after the 2009 dip.

  • Many others also predicted a long-term reluctance to spend. In reality, global sales of luxury items show an upward trend in the last 20 years.

  • Carmakers slashed production of SUVs, a symbol of excess, and just a ‘bubble’ according to an expert. In reality, Carmakers are slashing sedan production due to the high demand for SUVs.

The Unpredictability Factor

Predictions are inherently inaccurate because in the time horizon of 10 to 12 years many other things happen which cannot be foreseen, and which cause all kinds of good and bad effects. Speculation is useful and starts interesting discussions (like death rate predictions and economic consequences), helping us make the right steps.

The Prediction that can’t go wrong: The future is always unpredictable.

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