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Why Most Post-Crisis Predictions Will Be Totally Wrong
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The Feature Presentation of 2020
Throughout history, the most significant and world-changing events emerge in a low-key manner, without warning. 2020 has one such event.
While a global pandemic is unfolding right before our eyes, there is a rush of predictions regarding the changes in our professional and personal lives, and if we go by history, most of these predictions will be inaccurate.
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Bad Predictions
During 9/11, it was predicted that the event will permanently alter our sense of irony. In reality, 9/11 caused massive changes in air travel norms.
At the time of the 2009 financial crisis, Time Magazine declared that conspicuous consumption is now over. In reality, the economy made record gains after the 2009 dip.
Many others also predicted a long-term reluctance to spend. In reality, global sales of luxury items show an upward trend in the last 20 years.
Carmakers slashed production of SUVs, a symbol of excess, and just a ‘bubble’ according to an expert. In reality, Carmakers are slashing sedan production due to the high demand for SUVs.
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The Unpredictability Factor
Predictions are inherently inaccurate because in the time horizon of 10 to 12 years many other things happen which cannot be foreseen, and which cause all kinds of good and bad effects. Speculation is useful and starts interesting discussions (like death rate predictions and economic consequences), helping us make the right steps.
The Prediction that can’t go wrong: The future is always unpredictable.
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The Lockdown: Europe And Asia
- In Europe, The north of Italy, which is the main tourist hub, is seeing a collapse in economic activity, along with Germany, which is falling at a steeper rate than the United States. Even countries like Japan, which are not hit that hard, are about to witness an apocalyptic fall.
- In India, with the abrupt 21 days shutdown, which was recently extended by another 19 days, only a small percentage of the 1.3 billion population is covered by any social security, and millions of daily wage or migrant workers, have no hope, future or place to stay.
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Minimalism: The deeper roots
Minimalism is a quiet celebration of space, but bold in the way its simplicity overwhelms.
Just after World War II, minimalism became popular because of its perfect utopian style. After...
Minimalism is not just a trendy style
Minimalism is about experiencing the world directly and engaging with your surroundings.
The style now seems more like numbing yourself and creating a protective environment from the overwhelming visual experiences on the internet.
Minimalism and its moral superiority aura
Minimalism these days has an aura of moral superiority.
The problem with minimalism today is that the style is associated with moral purity and outsiderness but it's being adopted by wealthy women and tech billionaires. The style of minimalism we see today is a reality that's not very minimal at all.
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An Uncertain World
The ongoing epidemic, due to its unknown nature, has provided us with a lot of uncertainties related to the characteristics, severity, mortality rate, infectious rate and spread of the disease. The...
Kinds of Uncertainty
- Epistemic Uncertainty: Uncertain information and data about the past or present, which can be unraveled by using measuring tools.
- Aleatory Uncertainty: The unknown things about the future related to randomness, luck, chance or indeterminacy.
- Deep Uncertainty: Also called radical uncertainty, it is a state in which there are so many unknown things that the future looks like an abyss.
Statistics Vs The Truth
In statistical science, risk is an important uncertainty, but a comparing of risks sometimes does not take into account certain human factors, leading to misinformation or even disinformation. This is due to the statistical models being oversimplifications of the real world.
Statistical data is a ‘Map’, not the actual territory.