When asked to make an estimate, we start with a number we know and adjust up or down from there. For example, someone from Chicago may guess the population of Milwaukee by starting with that of Chicago (~3m) and adjusting down to, say 1m. Someone from Green Bay may adjust up from their population (100k) to, say, 300k.
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The book introduces “nudge theory”, a system for influencing decision making without restricting options.In order to nudge people towards making certain decisions, the authors advocate for “choice architecture”. Choice Architecture is the practice of influencing choices by organising the context in which they are made. The irony is that behavioral economics, having attacked Homo Economicus as an empirically false description of human choice, now proposes, in the name of paternalism, to enshrine the very same fellow as the image of what people should want to be. Read It with a grain of salt
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Similar ideas to Anchoring and adjustment
What matters most is often the hardest to track. We then measure things we don't care about with the hope that it will give some clarity. The solution:
When you have written down notes containing simple explanations, organize them in a narrative that you can tell from start to finish.
If the explanation is not clear, identify your gaps, look up definitions, augment with other sources, then organize and simplify again. You ...
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