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Some downsides are unavoidable

Some downsides are unavoidable

Life is a little easier if you expect a certain chunk of it to go wrong no matter how hard you try.

Smart people screw up. Good people have bad days. Nice people lose their temper.

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MORE IDEAS FROM THE SAME ARTICLE

Long-term thinking is difficult to put in action because the long run is a collection of short runs that have to be handled, displayed, and used as information to gauge whether a long-term reward still exists.

Short-term thinking can be the only way you’ll survive long enough to experi...

It’s impossible to think about risk and opportunity without a reference point. And ours is at most incomplete (if not totally wrong).

Everything we think about risk and opportunity is shaped by our own specific situation and personal experience. So everybody has a view of risk shaped by ...

A fair evaluation of how uncertain the future is would make most people refuse to get out of bed every morning. Nothing would get done in the world if people were only driven by the accurate probability of their future success.

A little blindness, a little over-optimism, and a little den...

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MORE LIKE THIS

Most of us understand probability and the likelihood of certain things to happen, or not happening, but still do not fully believe in it. For us, it’s about right and wrong, black or white.

Example: Nate Silver(a numbers guy) said in 2016 that Hillary Clinton has a 72 percent chance to...

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Cautiously Optimistic

Our predictions usually seem to fall towards extremes, either too optimistic or too pessimistic. We underestimate how bad things can be in the short term, and how much better they can eventually turn out to be in the longer run. This leads to bad decisions, laughably wrong foreca...

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Permanent Assumptions

In this world of uncertainties, nothing but death and taxes are sureshot in our lives.

There are however some assumptions that withstand the test of time. These assumptions take into account basic human psychology and historical data.

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