Clear thinking starts with understanding the importance of mental models in simplifying complex problems

Probabilistic thinking aids in making decisions based on the likelihood of different outcomes.

Second-order thinking considers the long-term consequences and secondary effects of decisions.

Avoiding confirmation bias requires actively seeking out information that challenges your assumptions.

Focusing on process over outcome leads to better decision-making and continuous improvement.”

Mental resilience and adaptability are crucial for navigating uncertainty and change.

Using checklists can prevent oversight and ensure all necessary steps are considered.

First principles thinking involves breaking down problems to their fundamental truths to find innovative solutions

The concept of ‘Circle of Competence’ emphasizes focusing on areas where you have knowledge and expertise.

Recognising cognitive biases helps in avoiding errors in judgment and decision-making.

Understanding opportunity cost helps in evaluating the true cost of decisions and actions.

Marginal gains, or small improvements, compound over time to yield significant results.

The OODA Loop—Observe, Orient, Decide, Act—enhances decision-making speed and adaptability.

Avoiding sunk cost fallacy helps in making rational decisions based on current realities.

Inversion, or thinking backward, can help identify potential problems and prevent mistakes.

Thinking in terms of systems and understanding interdependencies improves strategic planning.

The Pareto Principle, or 80/20 rule, focuses efforts on the most impactful activities.

Effective problem-solving involves distinguishing between complex and complicated problems.

Continuous learning and curiosity drive intellectual growth and better decision-making

Mental models from diverse disciplines provide a toolkit for understanding and solving varied problems

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The instant New York Times bestseller 'An indispensable guide' James Clear, author of Atomic Habits 'A game-changer' Morgan Housel, author of The Psychology of Money 'A must-read' Mark Manson, author of The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck 'A masterwork' Ryan Holiday, author of The Daily Stoic We all want to see the world clearly. The trouble is, we're never taught how. Join Shane Parrish - 'the former spy who helps Wall Street mavens think smarter' (New York Times) - for a masterclass in the art of clear thinking. Drawing on examples ranging from the evolutionary origins of our 'emotion default' to the secret history of the Challenger disaster, Parrish offers powerful mental models to make sense of any situation. And he reveals a simple, actionable method for smarter decision-making, starting today. Along the way, he shows that the secret to mental clarity lies not in how we approach the most high-stakes moments - but in our tiniest, most everyday decisions. It's a simple idea with startling implications: if you clear your head today, you change your life tomorrow. _ 'Incisive. Practical. Full of vivid examples, and enormously fun to read.' Jim Collins, author of Good to Great 'Shane Parrish doesn't just teach clear thinking - he lives it.' Adam Grant, author of Originals 'If you want results - good ones - that you can achieve confidently again and again, read this book.' Annie Duke, author of Quit

SHANE PARRISH

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