Most of us understand probability and the likelihood of certain things to happen, or not happening, but still do not fully believe in it. For us, it’s about right and wrong, black or white. 
Example: Nate Silver(a numbers guy) said in 2016 that Hillary Clinton has a 72 percent chance to win. This didn’t mean he was wrong when Clinton lost, but most people believed he was.

Probability

<ul><li>The pandemic death toll predictions are probabilities but the newspapers keep them as benchmark numbers which will be held against the experts.</li><li>In investing, stock predictions that come true are hailed on CNBC, as if those people have some superpower.</li></ul>

Black And White

Probability gets sidelined because: <ul><li>People want certainty, not accuracy. It’s more appealing to make them feel better(with lies, if required) than to give them cold, hard data.</li><li>There are not many chances to measure our prediction skills, with sufficient sample sizes taking long to play out.</li><li>People don’t really understand what odds mean, as their beliefs and preferences of what should happen, takes precedence over probability.</li></ul>

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Why We're Blind to Probability · Collaborative Fund

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Black And White

Why We're Blind to Probability · Collaborative Fund

IDEA ABOUT

MORE LIKE THIS

Acceptable Flaws · Collaborative Fund

Common Causes of Very Bad Decisions · Collaborative Fund

Same As It Ever Was · Collaborative Fund

It's time to

READ

LIKE

A PRO!

Bite-sized knowledge
to upgrade
your career