Why We're Blind to Probability · Collaborative Fund - Deepstash

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Why We're Blind to Probability · Collaborative Fund

collaborativefund.com

Most of us understand probability and the likelihood of certain things to happen, or not happening, but still do not fully believe in it. For us, it’s about right and wrong, black or white.

Example: Nate Silver(a numbers guy) said in 2016 that Hillary Clinton has a 72 percent chance to...

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  • The pandemic death toll predictions are probabilities but the newspapers keep them as benchmark numbers which will be held against the experts.
  • In investing, stock predictions that come true are hailed on CNBC, as if those people have some superpower.

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Probability gets sidelined because:


  • People want certainty, not accuracy. It’s more appealing to make them feel better(with lies, if required) than to give them cold, hard data.
  • There are not many chances to measure our prediction skills, with sufficient sample sizes taking ...

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