Learn more about problemsolving with this collection
How to break bad habits
How habits are formed
The importance of consistency
Probability
Most of us understand probability and the likelihood of certain things to happen, or not happening, but still do not fully believe in it. For us, it’s about right and wrong, black or white.
Example: Nate Silver(a numbers guy) said in 2016 that Hillary Clinton has a 72 percent chance to win. This didn’t mean he was wrong when Clinton lost, but most people believed he was.
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Black And White
- The pandemic death toll predictions are probabilities but the newspapers keep them as benchmark numbers which will be held against the experts.
- In investing, stock predictions that come true are hailed on CNBC, as if those people have some superpower.
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Ignoring Probability
Probability gets sidelined because:
- People want certainty, not accuracy. It’s more appealing to make them feel better(with lies, if required) than to give them cold, hard data.
- There are not many chances to measure our prediction skills, with sufficient sample sizes taking long to play out.
- People don’t really understand what odds mean, as their beliefs and preferences of what should happen, takes precedence over probability.
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CURATED BY
"I think the next best thing to solving a problem is finding some humor in it." -Frank Howard Clark
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