Ignoring Probability

Probability gets sidelined because:

• People want certainty, not accuracy. It’s more appealing to make them feel better(with lies, if required) than to give them cold, hard data.
• There are not many chances to measure our prediction skills, with sufficient sample sizes taking long to play out.
• People don’t really understand what odds mean, as their beliefs and preferences of what should happen, takes precedence over probability.