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Similar ideas to Why we use models
Predictions are inherently inaccurate because in the time horizon of 10 to 12 years many other things happen which cannot be foreseen, and which cause all kinds of good and bad effects. Speculation is useful and starts interesting discussions (like death rate predictions and economic consequences...
Mental models are a set of ideas, which like an algorithm, shapes our perception and understanding of how the world operates.
And we need to evaluate the validity of these shortcuts and check the reliability of the mental models to ensure they are effective.
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