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The Cobra Effect
Most of us have a simple, cause-to-effect relationship with our surroundings and the events that unfold in our lives. We try to solve problems using a linear-thinking model, resulting in inconstant consequences. This is known as The Cobra Effect.
Linear thinking assumes that there will be no unpredictable side-effects and nothing unusual or unexpected will happen, which may or may not be the case.
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The term ‘Cobra Effect’ originates from Colonial India, which was under the rule of the Britishers. To tackle the problem of the growing number of cobras, the British government announced a bounty on every dead cobra. Enterprising locals started breeding cobras and kept on claiming the bounty...
Second-level thinking is a form of mental model that makes us map out the complex implications of the various decisions under consideration.
This helps us take into account the limitations of our minds and separate the signal from the noise.
A dynamic system has two types of feedback loops:
- Positive Feedback: This feedback loop keeps the coveted effect in progress.
- Balancing Feedback: Also called negative feedback, this loop keeps the system in a balanced state.
In...
It is impossible to accurately predict all potentialities in any proposed decision, as the amount of information we have is almost always inadequate.
Mental Models are cognitive constructs in our brain, which like an algorithm, can help us minimize any unwanted co...
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There are many situations and disastrous circumstances where impulsive and emotional solutions are applied, which apparently solve the problem but unintentionally create new problems or collateral damage that may be worse. This is known as The Law Of Unintended Consequences.
E...
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Because we mostly react instead of think, our actions are based on insufficient information. We grab for a solution without thinking deeply about the context of the problem: e.g: We try to cheer up a depressed person by making her realize that her life is not that bad and that the sun is shi...
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"What gets measured gets managed" is not only erroneously attributed to famous management consultant Peter Drucker, but it is also flawed.
The idea possibly came from a paper published in 1956 by V.F. Ridgway. He was pointing out that we should be more careful when using quantitative measu...
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