It is impossible to accurately predict all potentialities in any proposed decision, as the amount of information we have is almost always inadequate.

Most of us have a simple, cause-to-effect relationship with our surroundings and the events that unfold in our lives. We try to solve problems using a linear-thinking model, resulting in inconstant consequences. This is known as The Cobra Effect.

The term ‘Cobra Effect’ originates from Colonial India, which was under the rule of the Britishers. To tackle the problem of the growing number of cobras, the British government announced a bounty on every dead cobra. Enterprising locals started breeding cobras and kept on claiming the bounty...

Second-level thinking is a form of mental model that makes us map out the complex implications of the various decisions under consideration.