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Understanding the psychological rewards of bad habits
Creating new habits to replace old ones
Developing self-discipline
Important things rarely have one cause
An important lesson from history is that big events are more complicated. It makes forecasting difficult, politics nasty, and lessons to learn from it harder.
We may demand simple answers to explain outlier events. However, it's almost impossible for something big to happen because of one event, person, or group. Unrelated things often culminate into something significant. For example, the Great Depression was the result of a stock market crash, a banking crash, a real estate bubble, an agricultural disaster, and an inadequate policy response. When all these things happened at the same time, it was a catastrophe.
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MORE IDEAS ON THIS
There are two kinds of historical events to learn from
- Specific events. Their usefulness is limited to particular events that will not be repeated in the exact same way. What did this person do right, or wrong? What ideas worked? What strategies failed?
- Broad behaviours that repeatedly surfac...
83
474 reads
People believe what they want to believe
- Everyone has a model in their head of how they think the world works. That model is built mostly from what you've experienced and what people you trust have told you. But everyone has different experiences and a different set of people, leading to different models.
- We also believe ...
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288 reads
Calm plants the seeds of crazy
- Good times often breed complacency and scepticism of warnings. Until 2020, the public assumed pandemics were things of the past. 100 years ago, people had a better understanding of how dangerous an outbreak could be.
- Carl Jung thought that an exces...
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400 reads
Risk is what you don’t see
The risks we talk about are seldom the most important in hindsight. The real risk is what no-one sees coming. For example, September 11th, Pearl Harbor, The Great Depression. These events surprised nearly everyone and instantly shoved the world in a new direction.
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280 reads
Progress requires optimism and pessimism to coexist
Optimism and pessimism go hand in hand. In finance, we are told to save like a pessimist and invest like an optimist. The short term is full of setbacks, problems, breakages, depressions, pandemics, errors, but if you can stick around long enough, you can experience long-term growth.
...81
301 reads
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Whenever I have a problem I just sing, then I realize my voice is worse than my problem
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