Thinking about a problem from an inverse perspective can unlock new solutions and strategies.The central mental model to help you become a chef with your thinking is arguing from first principles. It’s the practical starting point to being wrong less, and it means thinking from the bottom up, using basic building blocks of what you think is true to build sound (and sometimes new) conclusions. First principles are the group of self-evident assumptions that make up the foundation on which your conclusions rest—the ingredients in a recipe or the mathematical axioms that underpin a formula.

First Principles Thinking

When arguing from first principles, you are deliberately starting from scratch. You are explicitly avoiding the potential trap of conventional wisdom, which could turn out to be wrong. To be wrong less, you need to test your assumptions in the real world, a process known as de-risking. There is a risk that one or more of your assumptions are untrue, and so the conclusions you reach could also be false. The next step is actually going out and testing these assumptions, proving or disproving them, and then adjusting your strategy appropriately.

De-Risking: Testing Your Assumptions

Ockham’s razor advises that the simplest explanation is most likely to be true. Look at your explanation of a situation, break it down into its constituent assumptions, and for each one, ask yourself: Does this assumption really need to be here? What evidence do I have that it should remain? Is it a false dependency?Overfitting occurs when you use an overly complicated explanation when a simpler one will do. It’s what happens when you don’t heed Ockham’s razor, when you get sucked into the conjunction fallacy or make a similar unforced error.

Ockham’s Razor

If you’re trying to be as objective as possible when making a decision or solving a problem, you always want to account for your frame of reference. A frame-of-reference mental trap is framing. Framing refers to the way you present a situation or explanation. You will of course be influenced by your perspective, but you don’t want to be unknowingly influenced. If you think you may not have the full understanding of a situation, then you must actively try to get it by looking from a variety of different frames of reference.

Your Frame Of Reference

Nudging: You can be nudged in a direction by a subtle word choice or other environmental cues.Anchoring: The tendency to rely too heavily on first impressions when making decisions.Availability bias: This occurs when a bias, or distortion, creeps into your objective view of reality thanks to information recently made available to you. Further, the availability bias stems from overreliance on your recent experiences within your frame of reference, at the expense of the big picture.

The Unconcious Mental Models

Consequently, to be wrong less when thinking about people, you must find ways to increase your empathy, opening up a deeper understanding of what other people are really thinking.                In any conflict between two people, there are two sides to the story. Then there is the third story, the story that a third, impartial observer would recount.Forcing yourself to think as an impartial observer can help you in any conflict situation, including difficult business negotiations and personal disagreements.

Understanding Other's Point Of View

If you can coherently articulate other points of view, even those directly in conflict with your own, then you will be less likely to make biased or incorrect judgments.

Most respectful interpretation(MRI): In any situation, you can explain a person’s behavior in many ways. MRI asks you to interpret the other parties’ actions in the most respectful way possible.Hanlon’s razor invites you to never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by carelessness.The third story, most respectful interpretation, and Hanlon’s razor are all attempts to overcome what psychologists call the fundamental attribution error, where you frequently make errors by attributing others’ behaviors to their internal, or fundamental, motivations rather than external factors.

Hanlon's Razor and the Fundamental Attribution Error

The veil of ignorance holds that when thinking about how society should be organized, we should do so by imagining ourselves ignorant of our particular place in the world, as if there were a veil preventing us from knowing who we are.The human tendency to gather and interpret new information in a biased way to confirm preexisting beliefs is called confirmation bias.Confirmation bias is so hard to overcome that there is a related model called the backfire effect that describes the phenomenon of digging in further on a position when faced with clear evidence that disproves it.

The Notorious Confirmation Bias

You may also succumb to holding on to incorrect beliefs because of disconfirmation bias, where you impose a stronger burden of proof on the ideas you don’t want to believe.The pernicious effects of confirmation bias and related models can be explained by cognitive dissonance, the stress felt by holding two contradictory, dissonant, beliefs at once.A real trick to being wrong less is to fight your instincts to dismiss new information and instead embrace new ways of thinking and new paradigms.

Holding Two Different Beliefs Together

Thinking Gray: You may think about issues in terms of black and white, but the truth is somewhere in between, a shade of gray. A truly effective leader, however, needs to be able to see the shades of gray inherent in a situation in order to make wise decisions as to how to proceed.Devil’s advocate: Playing the Devil’s advocate means taking up an opposing side of an argument, even if it is one you don’t agree with. One approach is to force yourself literally to write down different cases for a given decision or appoint different members in a group to do so.

Overcoming Confirmation Bias

In any situation where you can spot spillover effects (like a polluting factory), look for an externality (like bad health effects) lurking nearby. Fixing it will require intervention either by fiat (like government regulation) or by setting up a marketplace system according to the Coase theorem (like cap and trade).Beware of situations with asymmetric information, as they can lead to principal-agent problems.

Anything That Can Go Wrong, Will

<ul><li>Choose activities to work on based on their relevance to your north star.</li><li>Focus your time on just one of these truly important activities at a time (no multitasking!), making it the top idea on your mind.</li><li>Select between options based on opportunity cost models. </li><li>Use the Pareto principle to find the 80/20 in any activity and increase your leverage at every turn.</li><li>Recognize when you’ve hit diminishing returns and avoid negative returns.</li><li>Use commitment and the default effect to avoid present bias, and periodic evaluations to avoid loss aversion and the sunk-cost fallacy.</li></ul>

Spend Your Time Wisely

Adopt an experimental mindset, looking for opportunities to run experiments and apply the scientific method wherever possible.Respect inertia: create or join healthy flywheels; avoid strategy taxes and trying to enact change in high-inertia situations unless you have a tactical advantage such as the discovery of a catalyst and a lot of potential energy.When enacting change, think deeply about how to reach critical mass and how you will navigate the technology adoption life cycle.Actively cultivate your luck surface area and put in work needed to not be subsumed by entropy.”

Becoming One with Nature 

<ul><li>Avoid succumbing to the gambler’s fallacy or the base rate fallacy.</li><li>Anecdotal evidence and correlations you see in data are good hypothesis generators, but correlation does not imply causation—you still need to rely on well-designed experiments to draw strong conclusions.</li><li>Look for tried-and-true experimental designs, such as randomized controlled experiments or A/B testing, that show statistical significance.</li><li>The normal distribution is particularly useful in the experimental analysis due to the central limit theorem. </li></ul>

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

<ul><li>When tempted to use a pro-con list, consider upgrading to cost-benefit analysis or decision tree as appropriate.</li><li>When making any quantitative assessment, run a sensitivity analysis across inputs to uncover key drivers and appreciate where you may need to seek greater accuracy in your assumptions. Pay close attention to any discount rate used.</li><li>Beware of black swan events and unknown unknowns. Use systems thinking and scenario analysis to more systematically uncover them and assess their impact.</li></ul>

Decisions, Decisions 

<ul><li>Analyze conflict situations through a game-theory lens. Look to see if your situation is analogous to common situations like the prisoner’s dilemma, ultimatum game, or war of attrition.</li><li>Consider how you can convince others to join your side by being more persuasive through the use of influence models like reciprocity, commitment, liking, social proof, scarcity, and authority. And watch out for how they are being used on you, especially through dark patterns.</li><li>Think about how a situation is being framed and whether there is a way to frame it that better communicates your point of view.</li></ul>

Dealing with Conflict   

Leadership is unlocking people’s potential to become better.

People are not interchangeable. They come from a variety of backgrounds and with a varied set of personalities, strengths, and goals. To be the best manager, you must manage the person, accounting for each individual’s unique set of characteristics and current challenges.Craft unique roles that amplify each individual’s strengths and motivations. Promote people only to roles in which they can succeed.

Unlocking People’s Potential  

<ul><li>Find a secret and build your career or organization around it, searching via customer development for product/market fit (or another “fit” relevant to the situation).</li><li>Strive to be like a heat-seeking missile in your search for product/market fit, deftly navigating the idea maze. Look for signs of hitting a resonant frequency for validation.</li><li>If you can’t find any bright spots in what you’re doing after some time, critically evaluate your position and consider a pivot.</li></ul>

Flex Your Market Power

Super Thinking is about the frameworks and shortcuts top performers rely on the cut through complexity and separate good ideas from bad ones.

A WALL STREET JOURNAL BESTSELLER! "You can't really know anything if you just remember isolated facts. If the facts don't hang together on a latticework of theory, you don't have them in a usable form. You've got to have models in your head." - Charlie Munger, investor, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway The world's greatest problem-solvers, forecasters, and decision-makers all rely on a set of frameworks and shortcuts that help them cut through complexity and separate good ideas from bad ones. They're called mental models, and you can find them in dense textbooks on psychology, physics, economics, and more. Or, you can just read Super Thinking, a fun, illustrated guide to every mental model you could possibly need. How can mental models help you? Well, here are just a few examples... • If you've ever been overwhelmed by a to-do list that's grown too long, maybe you need the Eisenhower Decision Matrix to help you prioritize. • Use the 5 Whys model to better understand people's motivations or get to the root cause of a problem. • Before concluding that your colleague who messes up your projects is out to sabotage you, consider Hanlon's Razor for an alternative explanation. • Ever sat through a bad movie just because you paid a lot for the ticket? You might be falling prey to Sunk Cost Fallacy. • Set up Forcing Functions, like standing meeting or deadlines, to help grease the wheels for changes you want to occur. So, the next time you find yourself faced with a difficult decision or just trying to understand a complex situation, let Super Thinking upgrade your brain with mental models.

problemsolving

Problem Solving

books

Books

leadershipandmanagement

Leadership & Management

A WALL STREET JOURNAL BESTSELLER! "You can't really know anything if you just remember isolated facts. If the facts don't hang together on a latticework of theory, you don't have them in a usable form. You've got to have models in your head." - Charlie Munger, investor, vice chairman of Berkshire HathawayThe world's greatest problem-solvers, forecasters, and decision-makers all rely on a set of frameworks and shortcuts that help them cut through complexity and separate good ideas from bad ones. They're called mental models, and you can find them in dense textbooks on psychology, physics, economics, and more. Or, you can just read Super Thinking, a fun, illustrated guide to every mental model you could possibly need. How can mental models help you? Well, here are just a few examples...    • If you've ever been overwhelmed by a to-do list that's grown too long, maybe you need the Eisenhower Decision Matrix to help you prioritize.    • Use the 5 Whys model to better understand people's motivations or get to the root cause of a problem.    • Before concluding that your colleague who messes up your projects is out to sabotage you, consider Hanlon's Razor for an alternative explanation.    • Ever sat through a bad movie just because you paid a lot for the ticket? You might be falling prey to Sunk Cost Fallacy.    • Set up Forcing Functions, like standing meeting or deadlines, to help grease the wheels for changes you want to occur. So, the next time you find yourself faced with a difficult decision or just trying to understand a complex situation, let Super Thinking upgrade your brain with mental models.

Since 2008, I've been the CEO & Founder of DuckDuckGo, the Internet privacy company that empowers you to seamlessly take control of your personal information online, without any tradeoffs. Our private search engine is #4 in the U.S., Germany, Australia and dozens of other countries, answering over 9 billion queries in 2018.I also co-authored Super Thinking: The Big Book of Mental Models (Penguin Portfolio, 2019). Previously I co-authored Traction: How Any Startup Can Achieve Explosive Customer Growth (Penguin Portfolio, 2015). Before DuckDuckGo, I founded other Internet-related companies. My formal education is from MIT (B.S. Physics, '97-01; M.S. from the Technology and Policy Program '03-05).

Gabriel Weinberg

Lauren McCann

Super Thinking

Super Thinking: The Big Book of Mental Models

What is strategy? A mental tapestry of changing intentions for harmonizing and focusing our efforts as a basis for realizing some aim or purpose in an unfolding and often unforeseen world of many bewildering events and many contending interests.

<ul><li>Military leaders and strategists invest a great deal of time in developing and teaching decision-making processes.</li><li>Developed by strategist and U.S. Air Force Colonel John Boyd, the OODA loop is a practical concept designed to be the foundation of rational thinking in confusing or chaotic situations.</li><li>OODA stands for Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act.</li></ul>For example, fighter pilots have to work fast because taking a second too long to make a decision can cost them their lives.

The OODA Loop

John Boyd developed his ideas during his own time as a fighter pilot. He earned the nickname “Forty-Second Boyd” for his ability to win any fight in under 40 seconds. Boyd spent his career observing people and organizations. How do they adapt to changeable environments in conflicts, business, and other situations?He deduced that these situations are characterized by uncertainty. Dogmatic, rigid theories are unsuitable for chaotic situations. Rather than trying to rise through the military ranks, Boyd focused on using his position as colonel to compose a theory of the universal logic of war.

Forty-Second Boyd

OODA stands for Observe, Orient, Decide, Act. The description of it as a loop is crucial. Boyd intended the four steps to be repeated again and again until a conflict finishes. Although most depictions of the OODA loop portray it as a superficial idea, there is a lot of depth to it. Using it should be simple, but it has a rich basis in interdisciplinary knowledge.

The Four Parts of the OODA Loop

The first step in the OODA Loop is to observe. At this stage, the main focus is to build a comprehensive picture of the situation with as much accuracy as possible.A fighter pilot needs to consider: What is immediately affecting me? What is affecting my opponent? What could affect us later on? Can I make any predictions, and how accurate were my prior ones? A pilot’s environment changes rapidly, so these observations need to be broad and fluid.

Part 1: Observe

Orientation is frequently misunderstood or skipped because it is less intuitive than the other stages. Boyd referred to it as the schwerpunkt, a German term that loosely translates to “the main emphasis.” In this context, to orient is to recognize the barriers that might interfere with the other parts of the process.Without an awareness of these barriers, the subsequent decision cannot be a fully rational one. Orienting is all about connecting with reality, not with a false version of events filtered through the lens of cognitive biases and shortcuts.

Part 2: Orient

Orientation isn’t just a state you’re in; it’s a process. You’re always orienting

Four main barriers prevent us from seeing information in an unbiased manner:<ul><li>Our cultural traditions.</li><li>Our genetic heritage.</li><li>Our ability to analyze and synthesize.</li><li>The influx of new information — it is hard to make sense of observations when the situation keeps changing.</li></ul>

Moving Beyond Our Cognitive Bias

One needs to note incorrect assumptions and biases and then replace them with fundamental, versatile mental models. Only then can we begin to garner a reality-oriented picture of the situation, which will inform subsequent decisions.Example: A snowmobile comprises elements of different devices. The caterpillar treads of a tank, skis, the outboard motor of a boat, the handlebars of a bike — each of those elements are useless alone, but combining them creates a functional vehicle.We have to build a metaphorical snowmobile by combining practical concepts from different disciplines.

Tune Out The Noise, Find What Is   Fundamental 

Having gathered information and oriented ourselves, we have to make an informed decision. The previous two steps should have generated a plethora of ideas, so this is the point where we choose the most relevant option.First-conclusion bias:  We cannot keep making the same decision again and again. This part of the loop needs to be flexible and open to Bayesian updating. The implication is that we should test the decisions we make at this point in the loop, spotting their flaws and including any issues in future observation stages.

Part 3: Decide

While technically a decision-making process, the OODA loop is all about action. The ability to act upon rational decisions is a serious advantage.The other steps are mere precursors. A decision made, now is the time to act upon it. Also known as the test stage, this is when we experiment to see how good our decision was. Did we observe the right information? Did we use the best possible mental models? Did we get swayed by biases and other barriers? Can we disprove the prior hypothesis? Whatever the outcome, we then cycle back to the first part of the loop and begin observing again.

Part 4: Act

Fighter pilots must make many decisions in fast succession. They don’t have time to list pros and cons or to consider every available avenue. Once the OODA loop becomes part of their mental toolboxes, they should be able to cycle through it in a matter of seconds.Speed is a crucial element of military decision making. Using the OODA loop in everyday life, we probably have a little more time than a fighter pilot would. But Boyd emphasized the value of being decisive, taking initiative, and staying autonomous. These are universal assets and apply to many situations.

Why the OODA Loop Works: Speed

Uncertainty does not always equate to risk. A fighter pilot is in a precarious situation, where there will be gaps in their knowledge. They cannot read the mind of the opponent and might have incomplete information about the weather conditions and surrounding environment. They can, however, take into account key factors such as the opponent’s nationality, the type of aeroplane they are flying, and what their manoeuvres reveal about their intentions and level of training.

Why the OODA Loop Works: Comfort In Uncertainty

Gödel’s theorems indicate that any mental model we have of reality will omit certain information and that Bayesian updating must be used to bring it in line with reality. Our understanding of science illustrates this.In the past, people’s conception of reality missed crucial concepts such as criticality, relativity, the laws of thermodynamics, and gravity. As we have discovered these concepts, we have updated our view of the world. Yet we would be foolish to think that we now know everything and our worldview is complete. Other key principles remain undiscovered.

First Principles: Gödel’s Proof

This principle describes the limit of the precision with which pairs of physical properties can be understood. We cannot know the position and the velocity of a body at the same time. We can know either its location or its speed, but not both.  If a pilot focuses too hard on where an enemy plane is, they will lose track of where it is going and vice versa. Trying harder to track the two variables will actually lead to more inaccuracy! Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle applies to myriad areas where excessive observation proves detrimental. Reality is imprecise.

First Principles: Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle

In a closed system, entropy always increases and everything moves towards chaos. Energy spreads out and becomes disorganized.A  fighter pilot must be an open system or they will fail. They must draw “energy” (information) from outside themselves or the situation will become chaotic. They should also aim to cut their opponent off, forcing them to become a closed system.

First Principles: The Second Law of Thermodynamics

Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.

Using the OODA loop should enable us to act faster than an opponent, thereby seeming unpredictable. While they are still deciding what to do, we have already acted. This resets their own loop, moving them back to the observation stage. Keep doing this, and they are either rendered immobile or forced to act without making a considered decision. So, they start making mistakes, which can be exploited.

Why the OODA Loop Works: Unpredictability

We can’t just look at our own personal experiences or use the same mental recipes over and over again; we’ve got to look at other disciplines and activities and relate or connect them to what we know from our experiences and the strategic world we live in.

Ideas should be tested and then, if necessary, discarded.OODA is a feedback loop, with the outcome of actions leading back to observations. We can incorporate testing into our decision-making processes by keeping track of outcomes in <a href="https://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2014/02/decision-journal/">decision journals</a>.Rather than guessing how our decisions lead to certain outcomes, we can get a clear picture to aid us in future orientation stages. Over time, our decision journals will reveal what works and what doesn’t.

Why the OODA Loop Works: Testing

Make decisions using strategies from the best fighter pilot.

Learn the 4-step process fighter pilots use to make split-second decisions when the stakes are at their highest.

productivity

Productivity

personaldevelopment

Personal Development

OODA LOOP: What You Can Learn from Fighter Pilots About Making Fast and Accurate Decisions - Farnam Street

Home-office leaders need to decide how much autonomy they should give their local teams to expand into international markets. Depending on several factors, managers can determine which overseas divisions will benefit from a more centralized structure and which will be better off making decisions more independently. Holding too tight control over your overseas divisions can interfere with their ability to operate efficiently. Giving them too much autonomy can lead to quality issues, inconsistencies, or duplicated work.

Multinational organizations expanding into global markets

Executives should analyse the pace of the specific industry in which their businesses operate. Fast-paced sectors often require faster decision-making to respond to evolving opportunities and threats. As a result, teams in these sectors may benefit from greater autonomy. Sectors such as chemical engineering and traditional manufacturing grow slower and expect fewer changes, making it better to centralise decision-making to streamline operations and avoid costs.

Consider the pace your business sector is growing

A global company that relies heavily on capabilities like local procurement, production, and sales should consider decentralisation. For businesses that depend less on local assets, a higher degree of centralisation may make more sense. Some brands rely heavily on the strong, centralised brand of the parent company, making it necessary to integrate their regional teams closely with their headquarters.

Consider  the extent a business depends on local assets

Consider how much you trust your local counterparts. The more trust and the stronger your relationship, the better it is to give local teams more autonomy. There are different ways trust can develop. Time is sometimes all that is needed. In other cases, organisations can build trust into their company culture through intentional efforts.

Consider how strong your relationship is with local leadership

Figuring out how much autonomy to provide your international teams. Then create a plan to implement these different levels and types of autonomy around the world.<ul><li>Work with different departments to specify exactly where and how autonomy should be granted. Describe the categories of decisions that will likely be encountered and determine who will be responsible for making them.</li><li>Home office managers can work with their counterparts on the ground to ensure smooth implementation of the plan.</li><li>Ensure that information is clearly documented and communicated throughout the organization.</li></ul>

Effective implementation takes planning and communication

Three key factors to consider, based on more than 100 interviews with global executives.

business

Business

How Much Autonomy Should You Give Your Global Teams?

Traditional decision making often follows these stages to get to a single choice or answer:
<ul>
<li>We consider a number of choices, discussing the pros and cons of each choice or option.</li>
<li>If available, we’ll present data for each option.</li>
<li>We vote for our favoured choice (dot voting is a nice technique to use here).</li>
<li>We end up with a single choice that we can or can’t all live with, and perhaps we made a compromise to get to the final decision.</li>
</ul>
The problem here is that we too often end up with a watered-down compromise that we can live with, but that doesn’t fully address our needs or address the problem.

Integrative Thinking and Making Decisions

The four critical steps as part of the process for Integrative Thinking:
<ul>
<li>Articulate the models – Understand the problem and opposing models more deeply.</li>
<li>Examine the models – Define the points of tension, assumptions, and cause-and-effect forces.</li>
<li> Explore the possibilities – Play with the pathways to integration.</li>
<li>Assess the prototypes – Test and refine the possibilities.</li>
</ul>

Creating Great Choices

<ul>
<li>First, you define the problem you face. For example, through a problem statement you can figure out what the problem is and whether it’s worth solving. </li>
<li>The next step is to sketch two opposing ideas, explaining at a high level what each model would look like in practice. </li>
<li>Once the opposing models are clear, you explore each model in turn, seeking to understand how the model works, what benefits it produces, and why these outcomes matter.</li>
</ul>

Articulate The Models

Here you actively encourage the tension that comes from looking at the two opposing models together, through a series of exploratory questions:
<ul>
<li>Ask yourself how the models are similar and different.</li>
<li>Consider what you most value from the models as they’re articulated.</li>
<li>Question the models as you have articulated them and the benefits you’ve defined.</li>
<li>Explore the assumptions that underlie each model.</li>
<li>What are the cause-and-effect relationships there at work in the models?</li>
</ul>

Examining The Models

The next step is to try and integrate them into a “new, superior answer”. 
There are three guiding questions that you can use to come up with a new, integrated solution:
<ul>
<li>How might we create a new model using one building block from each opposing model, while throwing away the rest of each model?</li>
<li>Under what conditions could a more intense version of one model actually generate one vital benefit of the other?</li>
<li>How might the problem be broken apart in a new way so that each model could be applied in whole to distinct parts of the problem?</li>
</ul>

Exploring The Possibilities

The final step in the integrative process is to test your prototype solutions in order to discard or improve them. This can be done by sharing your ideas with (target) customers.
At its core, Integrative Thinking sets out to resolve the tension of opposing models by creating new models that contain elements of the original models. As a result, we’re creating new, superior solutions and ways of thinking.

Assessing The Prototypes

Move Beyond Trade-Off Thinking When it comes to our hardest choices, it can seem as though making trade-offs is inevitable. But what about those crucial times when accepting the obvious trade-off just isn't good enough? What do we do when the choices in front of us don't get us what we need? In those cases, rather than choosing the least worst option, we can use the models in front of us to create a new and superior answer. This is integrative thinking. First introduced by world-renowned strategic thinker Roger Martin in The Opposable Mind, integrative thinking is an approach to problem solving that uses opposing ideas as the basis for innovation. Now, in Creating Great Choices, Martin and his longtime thinking partner Jennifer Riel vividly illustrate how integrative thinking works, and how to do it. The book includes fresh stories of successful integrative thinkers that will demystify the process of creative problem solving, as well as practical tools and exercises to help readers engage with the ideas. And it lays out the authors' four-step methodology for creating great choices, which can be applied in virtually any context. The result is a replicable, thoughtful approach to finding a "third and better way" to make important choices in the face of unacceptable trade‐offs. Insightful and instructive, Creating Great Choices blends storytelling, theory, and hands-on advice to help any leader or manager facing a tough choice.

"The rarest of business books that teaches decision makers how to think, not what to think." - Malcolm Gladwell When it comes to our hardest choices, it can seem as though making trade-offs is inevitable. But what about those crucial times when accepting the obvious trade-off just isn't good enough? What do we do when the choices in front of us don't get us what we need? Rather than choosing the least worst option, Creating Great Choices offers a model that guides you towards a new and superior answer... integrative thinking. First introduced by world-renowned strategic thinker Roger Martin in The Opposable Mind, integrative thinking is an approach to problem solving that uses opposing ideas as the basis for innovation. Now, in Creating Great Choices, Martin and his longtime thinking partner Jennifer Riel vividly illustrate how integrative thinking works, and how to do it.The book includes fresh stories of successful integrative thinkers that will demystify the process of creative problem solving, as well as practical tools and exercises to help readers engage with the ideas. And it lays out the authors' four-step methodology for creating great choices, which can be applied in virtually any context. The result is a replicable, thoughtful approach to finding a "third and better way" to make important choices in the face of unacceptable trade‐offs.Insightful and instructive, Creating Great Choices blends storytelling, theory, and hands-on advice to help any leader or manager facing a tough choice.

Jennifer Riel

Roger L. Martin

The Woodstock Music and Art Fair of 1969 was organized by inexperienced promoters who still managed to get performers like Jimi Hendrix, Santana, and Joe Cocker. There were problems from the start: both Woodstock and Wallkill would not stage it. Then farmer Max Yasgur made his land available for the festival. Only a few tickets were sold, but over 400,000 showed up and mostly entered without paying. It rained, but the audience bonded - probably because they consumed marijuana and psychedelics.

Woodstock - the most famous rock festival

The festival caused its promoters to become almost bankrupt. But they held on to the film and recording rights. When Michael Wadleigh's documentary Woodstock (1970) became a hit, the promoters made their money back and more. A 1994 festival on the same site was better organised and more financially successful, but less noteworthy. A small riot spoiled the third festival in 1999.

Other Woodstock festivals

history

History

Woodstock | History, Location, & Facts | Britannica

Aspects about nutrition to consider are: <ul><li>When and what you should eat before, during and after your runs.</li><li>What you should drink, and how much.</li></ul> If you are starting to train for a long-distance race, there are tips that can guide your eating habits.

For runners, food is fuel

<ol><li>Eat more nutrient-rich food. During marathon training, you are burning more calories and need to replace them.</li><li>Fight the hunger. If you feel hungry all the time, a dietary change can help. Protein stabilizes your blood sugar and helps you feel fuller longer. Instead of eating three meals, divide the same amount of food into five smaller portions.</li><li>Try and try again. Experiment with different types of food and when to eat them to see what works best for you.</li></ol>

Three simple food rules

Food powers your runs. The right kind of fuel will help your run strong, while the wrong fuel can hold you back. Muscle cells have two primary sources of fuel: sugar and fat.<ol><li>Sugar: Dietary carbohydrates are broken down into simple glucose - a form of sugar. The glucose not immediately used is stored as glycogen in the muscles and liver for later use.</li><li>Fat: Stored body fat is an excellent fuel source during endurance exercise. Running regularly enables your body to use fat as fuel.</li></ol>

Food as fuel

<ul><li>What they do: Carbs are like "jet fuel for muscles." Your body breaks down carbohydrates to make glucose that is burned to move you.</li><li>Why you need it: Simple carbs like fruit, sports drinks, goos and gels give immediate energy. But your body can't absorb all the carbs at once; that's why long-distance runners also take in complex carbs such as pasta, oatmeal, potatoes and cereals.</li><li>How much is enough: Endurance athletes should aim for 60 to 65 per cent of their calories from carbs.</li></ul>

Carbohydrates for endurance runners

<ul><li>What it does: Stored body fat is a source of energy for endurance exercise. Dietary fat helps your body to absorb vitamins.</li><li>Why you need it: Fat is a backup source of fuel for when you run out of carbs.</li><li>When to eat it: Anytime, but a fat-rich meal is not quickly converted to fuel, so it is not best right before a run.</li><li>Where to find it: Eat a mix of fats: saturated fats found in butter, red meat, dark meat chicken. Polyunsaturated fats found in seed, fish and avocado. Monosaturated fats found in olive oil, avocados and some nuts.</li></ul>

Fat for endurance runners

<ul><li>What it does: Protein is a muscle builder or re-builder, not a fuel source.</li><li>Why you need it: Your muscles break down as you run, and protein helps to build it up again.</li><li>How much is enough: Women should eat 20-25 grams three times a day, while men should eat 25 - 30 grams per meal.</li><li>When to eat it: Eat protein within 20 minutes after a workout.</li><li>Where to find it: Fish, chicken, beef, beans, pork, dairy, eggs, quinoa, soy, barley, and protein powder.</li></ul>

Protein for endurance runners

<ul><li>What it does: Fruits and vegetables are other forms of carbohydrates and contain vitamins and minerals.</li><li>Why you need it: Its antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties seem to help ease muscle soreness and limit injuries.</li><li>When to eat it: Anytime.</li><li>Good sources: The best anti-inflammatory sources are berries (blueberries, strawberries, raspberries), stone fruits (peaches, plums, cherries, and vegetables (kale, sweet potatoes, red bell peppers.)</li></ul>

Fruits and vegetables

<ul><li>Before a run: For runs under an hour, don't worry too much much about what you eat beforehand. For long runs, eating easily digestible carbohydrates in the hour before exercise helps to work out longer.</li><li>During a run: A bottle of water is sufficient for a run shorter than 45 minutes. For a longer run, carbohydrates and fluids are necessary, such as sports gels or a banana. Try to eat or drink every four miles.</li><li>After a run: Eat immediately after an intense or long run, such as chocolate milk, whole-fat yoghurt and fruit, a smoothie, or a peanut butter and banana sandwich.</li></ul>

Time your food

<ul><li>Water: Drink when you are thirsty.</li><li>If you are concerned you are not drinking enough, check your sweat rate. Weigh yourself before and after a long run. The difference will determine how much weight you lost in fluid.</li><li>Too much water: Drinking too much fluid can be harmful. Hyponatremia happens when someone drinks too much liquid that their body can't get rid of through sweat or urination. In some instances, this can be fatal.</li></ul>

Staying hydrated

<ul><li>Myth: You will lose weight when you run. In reality, running will release hormones that will increase your appetite.</li><li>Myth: Carb-loading is essential before a race. Carbs eaten days earlier or for breakfast do not seem to impact performance. It can help if you eat them a whole day before a race.</li><li>Myth: Low-carb-high-fat diets will improve performance. There is little evidence to support this.</li><li>Myth: You need prepackaged energy products to run. You can make your own fuel. Natural energy foods include raisins, dates or dried cherries.</li></ul>

Common food myths

The combination of sugar and salt is essential as the glucose accelerates the body's uptake of the solution, increasing rehydration. <ul><li>2 cups (480ml) water or coconut water</li><li>1/2 teaspoon sea salt</li><li>4 teaspoons honey or white granulated sugar</li><li>1 large slice lemon or lime.</li><li>For other flavours, add 1 tablespoon fresh mint, half a cup of fresh berries, or half an orange.</li></ul> Mix all the ingredients, pour into water bottles and keep chilled until ready to use.

Make your own sports drink

BERRY MAPLE1/3 cup dried blueberries2/3 cup boiling water2 tablespoons pure maple syrup1/2 teaspoon lemon zest1/8 teaspoon salt PB&J1/3 cup dried cherries3/4 cup boiling water1 tablespoon smooth peanut butter2 teaspoons honey1/8 teaspoon salt (omit if using salted peanut butter) Put dried fruit and boiling water in a blender. Let it soak for half an hour. Add remaining ingredients and blend smooth. Cool and place in a reusable gel flask.

Make Your Own Energy Shots

For runners, food is more than simple nutrition — food is fuel. What and when should you eat before, during and after your runs? What should you drink and how much? When you are training for a long race — 10K or more — you are going to have to change how you eat; we’ll show you how to make those changes. 

food

Food

health

Health

exerciseandfitness

Exercise & Fitness

Healthy Eating for Runners - Well Guides

Brain development happens at different rates for different parts of the brain but here are the major trends in the construction that takes place:
<ul>
<li>In the womb: folding of the brain's outer layer</li>
<li>Newborn - childhood: the brain grows gradually and continues to develop white matter pathways and maturity of movement and sensation</li>
<li>Adolescence: gray matter thins out; synapses scale back, and susceptibility to outside influence heightens</li>
<li>Early adulthood: the prefrontal cortex is still developing.</li>
</ul>

Stages of Early Brain Development

We might have this idea that our brains change the same way but scientists have observed that there is a considerable variation between individuals in terms of when and what to extent aspects of the brain change.
Individual differences in brain development can be related to psychological differences.

Everyone's Brain Changes Differently

<ol>
<li>Genes - are a major key factor in brain development due to their contribution to normal individual variation in brain development, and relatively rare genetic alterations.</li>
<li>Environmental factors - Because having a safe and nurturing environment facilitates proper growth.</li>
</ol>

Major Factors That Influence Brain Development

It's been thought that the neurons were already created before birth, but research indicates that the brain keeps growing until mid to late childhood, decreases through the early 20s, stabilizes for quite a while, and then begins to decrease further from age 40 onwards.

Brain Growth

<ul>
<li>Neurogenesis is the process by which new neurons are created. The bulk of this process happens during the prenatal period of brain development.</li>
<li>Synaptogenesis is the process of forming connections or synapses.</li>
<li>Synaptic pruning is the process where synapses that aren't used grow weaker and disappear.</li>
<li>Myelination is a key process in neuronal development that begins before birth</li>
</ul>

Neurogenesis and Neuronal Development

<ul>
<li>Also known as neural plasticity</li>
<li>This is the capacity of the brain to change in response to experience and the environment.</li>
<li>It changes the brain from updating the neuronal networks to the formation of new memories to larger structural adaptations. </li>
<li>The brain has a great amount of plasticity and it remains an essential quality of the brain throughout adulthood.</li>
</ul>

Neuroplasticity

Before a person is even born, the brain has undergone intense expansion and growth in its complexity. This dramatic development continues into the first years of childhood. After an early boom period, a process of refinement and reduction sets in: childrens' and adolescents' brains respond to their life experiences and the world around them, and the most-used connections between brain cells are strengthened while others are pruned.

scienceandnature

Science & Nature

How the Brain Develops | Psychology Today

The Maslach Burnout Inventory, developed by a professor of psychology at the University of California, tries to define burnout by fielding the following criteria: Fatigue, cynicism, negativity towards one’s life or job role, along with reduced job performance.
The results showed that burnout is relative, and how we define it depends on not one, but all the listed criteria.

Defining Burnout

<ul>
<li>Many of us are heading towards burnout, but aren’t there yet. If we are overextended, disengaged and ineffective in our job roles, we are on the verge of burnout.</li>
<li>Avoiding true burnout is vital as work gets tougher, longer and harder to do for most people. People are scared to lose their jobs due to the pandemic, and corporates know how to squeeze maximum work out of them.</li>
<li>One needs to identify the workplaces with unmanageable workload and instead of booting out the employees who cannot stand the heat, the new argument is to turn down the heat itself.</li>
</ul>

The Burnout Spectrum

The pandemic has pushed many to the brink. But although we're exhausted and overwhelmed, some experts say we're not actually as burned out as we may think.

mentalhealth

Mental Health

timemanagement

Time Management

Why we may be measuring burnout all wrong

The idea that food is safe to eat off the floor if you pick it up quickly is not accurate.
A study showed that in some cases, bacteria takes less than a second to transfer to food. The longer food was allowed to stay on a surface, the more bacteria was transferred to the food. The higher the moisture, the higher the risk of transfer.

The 5-second rule

Bacteria travel through moisture. Wet food like watermelon will pick up the most bacteria, while less sticky food like gummy candies picks up the least. Regarding the surface, carpet has a lower rate of bacteria transfer to food than other surfaces. 
The risk of illness from eating food that has fallen on the floor will depend on factors such as prevalence, concentration and type of organism, moisture of the food, the nature of the surface, and the length of time the food was in contact with the surface.

Eating food from the floor: The riks of illness

entertainment

Entertainment

Still Good? 5-Second Rule a Myth, Study Finds | Live Science

Intermittent fasting (IF) became very popular back in 2013 with "The 8-hour diet" by David Zinczenko and Peter Moore. They claimed that eating your food within an 8-hour window would result in drastic weight loss.
Unlike other diets, IF is about limiting when you eat rather than what you eat.

Intermittent fasting (IF)

<ul>
<li>Do your research. Intermittent fasting can be dangerous for people with low blood sugar.</li>
<li>Decide which type of intermittent fasting schedule you want to try. Currently, there are six popular fasting patterns. The most popular option is the 16/8 method, where you fast for 16 hours, then eat within an 8-hour period.</li>
</ul>

Super Thinking: The Big Book of Mental Models

OODA LOOP: What You Can Learn from Fighter Pilots About Making Fast and Accurate Decisions - Farnam Street

How Much Autonomy Should You Give Your Global Teams?

Creating Great Choices

Woodstock | History, Location, & Facts | Britannica

Caroline V.