We are always asking the question “what’s next” in our head. Our intuitive thinking aka “System 1” guides us for the actions we do repeatedly. Outcomes of these actions are mostly known. And then we come across situations where there are lots of unknowns. Be it a project you are starting out or a company you are investigating in for investment purpose, you want to forecast.&nbsp;We don’t want to jump into conclusion here.

When We Think Fast and Slow

Inside view informs you about the capacity and resources you have while outside view takes you to a reference point (e.g. success rate of others in the same project with same level of capacity and resources) which gives you an indication of where the ballpark is. From there, you can take your forecast forward. Inside view blinds you to all the external and situational aspects while outside view lends you different dimensions to look from.&nbsp;

Inside View and Outside View

<img height="176" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hSgb-jPuABM/YGXoxqzlVWI/AAAAAAAABbA/ue1onYINJhMvcnGiN4rWHpnyTbkRffIpACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h176/Look%2Boutside%2B2.jpg" width="640">"The
 prevalent tendency to underweight or ignore distributional information 
is perhaps the major source of error in forecasting. Planners should 
therefore make every effort to frame the forecasting problem so as to 
facilitate utilizing all the distributional information that is 
available."&nbsp;- Bent FlyvbjergWe are always asking the question “what’s next” in our head. Our intuitive thinking aka “System 1” guides us for the actions we do repeatedly. Outcomes of these actions are mostly known. And then we come across situations where there are lots of unknowns. Be it a project you are starting out or a company you are investigating in for investment purpose, you want to forecast.&nbsp;Inside view informs you about the capacity and resources you have while outside view takes you to a reference point (e.g. success rate of others in the same project with same level of capacity and resources) which gives you an indication of where the ballpark is. From there, you can take your forecast forward. Inside view blinds you to all the external and situational aspects while outside view lends you different dimensions to look from.

leadershipandmanagement

Leadership & Management

"The prevalent tendency to underweight or ignore distributional information is perhaps the major source of error in forecasting. Planners should therefore make every effort to frame the forecasting problem so as to facilitate utilizing all the distributional information that is available."

- Bent Flyvbjerg

We are always asking the question “what’s next” in our head. Our intuitive thinking aka “System 1” guides us for the actions we do repeatedly. Outcomes of these actions are mostly known. And then we come across situations where there are lots of unknowns. Be it a project you are starting out or a company you are investigating in for investment purpose, you want to forecast.

Inside view informs you about the capacity and resources you have while outside view takes you to a reference point (e.g. success rate of others in the same project with same level of capacity and resources) which gives you an indication of where the ballpark is. From there, you can take your forecast forward. Inside view blinds you to all the external and situational aspects while outside view lends you different dimensions to look from.

Inside View and Outside View in Decision Making

When We Think Fast and Slow

Inside View and Outside View

Md. Nazmus Sakib's ideas are part of this journey:

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