Coronavirus, synchronous failure and the global phase-shift

If we assume that 400 people have been infected but undetected, the number of infected by the end of the week would reach 3,600. if the same process continues for another week, we are already at 32,400 by week two of our thought experiment. By week three, we reach 291,600 and by week four we reach 2.6 million, and by week five 23.6M, and week six, we’re at 212.6 million,

Public health experts say the Coronavirus expansion could play out in four ways. 

Scenario 1: the outbreak could be controlled via public-health interventions and disappear. 

Scenario 2: a vaccine could be developed but it won’t come in time to contain the global spread. Scenario 3: the virus could burn itself out within six months due to the impact of the summer, in terms of sunlight, temperature and humidity. As the virus spreads, containment efforts look unlikely,

The most devastating impact of the coronavirus might well be not from the virus but from the way human systems respond to it.

In 2006, US Department of homeland security issued a guide on pandemic preparedness. A pandemic could also "cause significant economic and security ramifications" a useful framework for assessing the societal impacts of the Coronavirus would be the ‘ synchronous failure’ concept led by Thomas Homer-Dixon. 

The 2008 financial crash was triggered by a global shift to more expensive sources of fossil fuel energy, due to the depletion of cheaper conventional resources. This shift was compensated for by massive quantitative easing (Qe), essentially, the expansion of global debt. This Debt-Expansion has fuelled GDP growth to the point that debt levels for some years have been higher than they were before the 2008 crash.

The Coronavirus has hit the global system at a point when its Energy-Economic vulnerability is extremely high. The most immediate impact has been on global financial markets, which have seen massive volatility in the stock market. The OECD has warned that the rate of global economic growth could be cut by half, while several major economies such as Japan and the Eurozone, could slide into recession. The Coronavirus has almost certainly averted an oil price shock.

The Coronavirus is not Vector-Borne, but Zoonotic — passed from animals to humans. There's no specific link between climate change and the Coronavirus. But there can be little doubt that climate change has increased the risk identified here. China’s particular vulnerability is related to rapid industrial growth, urban expansion, and how these factors have brought human populations into contact with animals carrying diseases. T

Industrial civilization is moving into the final stages of its life cycle. This stage creates wide new spaces for societal and civilizational renewal. The Coronavirus outbreak is, ultimately, a lesson in not just the inherent systemic Fragilities in industrial civilization, but also the limits of its underlying paradigm. It is an exercise not just in building societal resilience, but in relearning the values of cooperation, compassion, generosity and kindness. 

Human capacity to give freely regardless of material constraints. This is the capacity through love to work, give and share not for monetary gain, not for self-protection, not for any reason other than the intrinsic beauty of the act itself. As the Coronavirus crisis kicks off, it is our capacity through love to work, give and share not for monetary gain, not for self-protection, not for any reason other than the intrinsic beauty of the act itself.