Research shows that when we have to decide between two possible outcomes, one with a known probability and one with an unknown probability, we tend to choose the option with the known probability.
We skip over the difficult part of making estimates or guesses about the ambiguous option and opt instead for the familiar outcome.
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Similar ideas to The ambiguity effect
It is a cognitive bias: we tend to have a specific change in preferences between two options when also presented with a third option that is asymmetrically dominated.
This is the secret agent in more decisions than we could imagine. It even helps us decide whom to date...
We are inclined to believe that complex solutions and explanations are better than simple ones. The perception of complexity often leads to avoidance.
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