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Thinking in Bets
Becoming comfortable with uncertainty and not knowing is a vital step to becoming a better decision-maker.
What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge.
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MORE IDEAS ON THIS
Separate decision quality from results
People have a natural tendency to conflate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome. They're not the same thing.
You can make a smart, rational choice but still get poor results. That doesn't mean you should have made a different choice; it simply means that other f...
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Make smarter decisions
- Stop thinking in terms of right and wrong. Few things are ever 0% or 100% likely to occur. Instead, we should think in bets.
- Before we commit to a course of action, we should think about possible outcomes and how likely each of those outcomes is to occur. Every choice carr...
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Improve the quality of your decisions
- Learn to examine your own beliefs. If you're certain about something, explore the opposing viewpoint.
- Build a network of trusted advisors. Draw on people from a variety of backgrounds and belief systems.
- When you make decisions, think of the future. Prac...
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Luck and Incomplete Information
Why don't smart decisions always lead to good results? Because we don't have complete control over our lives — and we don't have all of the information.
You can opt not to drink on New Year's Eve, for instance, but still get blindsided by somebody who did to drink and drive....
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“Making a good decision is about the process, not the outcome. One bad outcome doesn’t make you a poor decision-maker any more than one good outcome makes you a genius. Unless you evaluate your reasoning at the time you made the decision, you’ll never know whether you were correct or just luc...
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Changing How We Evaluate Success with Decisions
... is critical in uncertainty. We too often judge people by the outcomes of the decisions instead of on the process that was used to reach them.
However, isn’t it better if people had an unfortunate result and a great process than someone who had a...
The Key Takeaways Of The Book
When you are not afraid of rejection and it feels like you have nothing to lose, amazing things can happen.
Becoming a master of a craft requires not just great skills, but also the ability to weather rejections to get to an acceptance—not to mention an unfailing belief in yourself and you...
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