Thinking in Bets - Deepstash

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Thinking in Bets

Becoming comfortable with uncertainty and not knowing is a vital step to becoming a better decision-maker.

What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge.

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MORE IDEAS FROM THE SAME ARTICLE

People have a natural tendency to conflate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome. They're not the same thing. 

  • Learn to examine your own beliefs. If you're certain about something, explore the opposing viewpoint.
  • Build a network of trusted advisors. Draw on people from a variety of backgrounds and belief systems. 
  • When you make decisions, think of the future. Prac...

Why don't smart decisions always lead to good results? Because we don't have complete control over our lives — and we don't have all of the information. 

  • Stop thinking in terms of right and wrong. Few things are ever 0% or 100% likely to occur. Instead, we should think in bets.
  • Before we commit to a course of action, we should think about possible outcomes and how likely each of those outcomes is to occur. Every choice carr...

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