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Thinking in Bets
Becoming comfortable with uncertainty and not knowing is a vital step to becoming a better decision-maker.
What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge.
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Make smarter decisions
- Stop thinking in terms of right and wrong. Few things are ever 0% or 100% likely to occur. Instead, we should think in bets.
- Before we commit to a course of action, we should think about possible outcomes and how likely each of those outcomes is to occur. Every choice carr...
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668 reads
Improve the quality of your decisions
- Learn to examine your own beliefs. If you're certain about something, explore the opposing viewpoint.
- Build a network of trusted advisors. Draw on people from a variety of backgrounds and belief systems.
- When you make decisions, think of the future. Prac...
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615 reads
Luck and Incomplete Information
Why don't smart decisions always lead to good results? Because we don't have complete control over our lives — and we don't have all of the information.
You can opt not to drink on New Year's Eve, for instance, but still get blindsided by somebody who did to drink and drive....
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Separate decision quality from results
People have a natural tendency to conflate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome. They're not the same thing.
You can make a smart, rational choice but still get poor results. That doesn't mean you should have made a different choice; it simply means that other f...
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Changing How We Evaluate Success with Decisions
... is critical in uncertainty. We too often judge people by the outcomes of the decisions instead of on the process that was used to reach them.
However, isn’t it better if people had an unfortunate result and a great process than someone who had a...
The Key Takeaways Of The Book
When you are not afraid of rejection and it feels like you have nothing to lose, amazing things can happen.
Becoming a master of a craft requires not just great skills, but also the ability to weather rejections to get to an acceptance—not to mention an unfailing belief in yourself and you...
Education Is Freedom - Day 149
- Why are you reading these entries? Not to pass your time - there are plenty of easier choices than reading. Because you are learning how to live. Because you want to be freer, fear less, and achieve a state of peace. Education - reading and meditating on the wisdom of great minds - is not to...
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