Using Decision Trees
- Understand the different outcomes that could happen (both positive and negative)
- Calculate the expected return or loss of each outcome
- Attach a probability to each outcome
- Understanding the magnitude of the return or loss
- Multiply the probability by the magnitude (probability of winning * value of win) — (probability of losing * cost of the loss)
- Add up and subtract all of the expected returns and losses
- To get started you don’t need to know the exact probabilities. Just following the process will give you unique insights you wouldn’t have had otherwise.
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"The pessimist complains about the wind. The optimist expects it to change. The leader adjusts the sails.”- John Maxwell
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