Using Decision Trees

  • Understand the different outcomes that could happen (both positive and negative)
  • Calculate the expected return or loss of each outcome
  • Attach a probability to each outcome
  • Understanding the magnitude of the return or loss
  • Multiply the probability by the magnitude (probability of winning * value of win) — (probability of losing * cost of the loss)
  • Add up and subtract all of the expected returns and losses
  • To get started you don’t need to know the exact probabilities. Just following the process will give you unique insights you wouldn’t have had otherwise.

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