It’s perfectly rational to overestimate some tail risks because you can’t consider them in isolation.  Driving after 2 glasses of wine once will not be extremely dangerous, but doing so every day is.When you measure tail risks in the laboratory you only consider one tail risks at a time, and that’s why their conclusions are wrong. Subjects are being rational in overestimating the risk because, chances are, they are likely already running several tail risks in their lives.

Overestimating tail risks makes sense

It is the most intolerant person who imposes virtues on others precisely because of that intolerance. We need to be more than intolerant with some intolerant minorities. The West is currently in the process of committing suicide.

Betting harder with money you won and being more conservative with your own money makes sense because that’s how you survive. Thaler and other behavioral economists don’t get it because they see the world as a one-shot game instead of a series of repeated trades.

Mental accounting is correct

In societies, minorities can come to dictate the rules to the majority.This usually happens because of asymmetry or because when the majority is either too flexible, too accommodating, or too indifferent. A case of asymmetry is between smokers and non-smokers. A smoker can sit in a smoke-free area but a non-smoker cannot sit in a smoker area, so the non-smokers will prevail even if they are the minority.However, this can become an issue when the minority prevails because it’s more aggressive or more intolerant.

Minority Rule Is Destroying The West

Those who don’t take risks should never be involved in making decisions

And when in doubt, it’s better not to mess with these systems. Starting a war to implement democracies is an example of messing with a complex system. Clueless politicians compare a local dictator not with the local alternatives but with a Norwegian prime minister. These people keep staying at their jobs even their reckless decisions because they don’t have skin in the game. Nobody paid anything for the Iraqi invasion or for supporting “Arab spring” failed uprisings.

Complex Systems Don’t Work With Simple Cause/Effect

Employees display submission by going through years of personal deprivation. Givin' up 9 hours of one’s time for years, every day is the equivalent of domestication. And showing up on time every day is the sign of an obedient, housebroken dog. The question is whether you want to be a housebroken dog or a free wolf. However, being a wolf comes with risks. Wolves who seek their own paths have skin in the game.

Employees Are Broken, Submissive Fellas

it’s not the poor who are actually envious of the rich and it’s not the poor who first embrace communist movements. It’s usually the bourgeois and the intellectuals and the clerical class who first embrace communism. It’s because of jealousy.

It’s intellectual Who Are Jealous of The Super Rich

You often hear people saying that you are more likely to die by X silly thing -ie.: coconut falling- than by terrorist attacks or Ebola outbreaks but that makes no sense.People dying because of falling coconuts or people who die by drowning in their bathtub will never double from one year to the other -they are examples of mediocre stand-.But the effects from events in an extreme stand, say a huge virus outbreak or a series of terrorist attacks, can increase the death toll by several orders of magnitude.

The Idiocy of Naive Empiricism

#1 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER * A bold work from the author of The Black Swan that challenges many of our long-held beliefs about risk and reward, politics and religion, finance and personal responsibility In his most provocative and practical book yet, one of the foremost thinkers of our time redefines what it means to understand the world, succeed in a profession, contribute to a fair and just society, detect nonsense, and influence others. Citing examples ranging from Hammurabi to Seneca, Antaeus the Giant to Donald Trump, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shows how the willingness to accept one's own risks is an essential attribute of heroes, saints, and flourishing people in all walks of life. As always both accessible and iconoclastic, Taleb challenges long-held beliefs about the values of those who spearhead military interventions, make financial investments, and propagate religious faiths. Among his insights: * For social justice, focus on symmetry and risk sharing. You cannot make profits and transfer the risks to others, as bankers and large corporations do. You cannot get rich without owning your own risk and paying for your own losses. Forcing skin in the game corrects this asymmetry better than thousands of laws and regulations. * Ethical rules aren't universal. You're part of a group larger than you, but it's still smaller than humanity in general. * Minorities, not majorities, run the world. The world is not run by consensus but by stubborn minorities imposing their tastes and ethics on others. * You can be an intellectual yet still be an idiot. "Educated philistines" have been wrong on everything from Stalinism to Iraq to low-carb diets. * Beware of complicated solutions (that someone was paid to find). A simple barbell can build muscle better than expensive new machines. * True religion is commitment, not just faith. How much you believe in something is manifested only by what you're willing to risk for it. The phrase "skin in the game" is one we have often heard but rarely stopped to truly dissect. It is the backbone of risk management, but it's also an astonishingly rich worldview that, as Taleb shows in this book, applies to all aspects of our lives. As Taleb says, "The symmetry of skin in the game is a simple rule that's necessary for fairness and justice, and the ultimate BS-buster," and "Never trust anyone who doesn't have skin in the game. Without it, fools and crooks will benefit, and their mistakes will never come back to haunt them."

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Business

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Books

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Politics

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Society, Arts & Culture

From the bestselling author of The Black Swan, a bold book that challenges many of our long-held beliefs about risk and reward, politics and religion, finance and personal responsibility 'Skin in the game means that you do not pay attention to what people say, only to what they do, and how much of their neck they are putting on the line' Citizens, artisans, police, fishermen, political activists and entrepreneurs all have skin in the game. Policy wonks, corporate executives, many academics, bankers and most journalists don't. It's all about having something to lose and sharing risks with others. In his most provocative and practical book yet, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shows that skin in the game, often seen as the foundation of risk management, in fact applies to all aspects of our lives. In his inimitable style, Taleb draws on everything from Antaeus the Giant to Hammurabi to Donald Trump, from ethics to used car salesmen, to create a jaw-dropping framework for understanding this idea. Among his insights: For social justice, focus on symmetry and risk sharing. Minorities, not majorities, run the world. You can be an intellectual yet still be an idiot. Beware of complicated solutions (that someone was paid to find). Just as The Black Swan did during the 2007 financial crisis, Skin in the Game comes at precisely the right moment to challenge our long-held beliefs about risk, reward, politics, religion and business - and make us rethink everything we thought we knew.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an accomplished writer whose work has resonated with readers around the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb has published several books that explore a range of topics, from fiction to nonfiction, and has received critical acclaim for the ability to weave compelling narratives. Nassim Nicholas Taleb's writing style is known for its depth and authenticity, and has earned quite a loyal following of readers.

It’s intellectual Who Are Jealous of The Super Rich

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