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Skin in the Game

Skin in the Game

Nassim Nicholas Taleb



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Complex Systems Don’t Work With Simple Cause/Effect

And when in doubt, it’s better not to mess with these systems. Starting a war to implement democracies is an example of messing with a complex system.

Clueless politicians compare a local dictator not with the local alternatives but with a Norwegian prime minister.

These people keep staying at their jobs even their reckless decisions because they don’t have skin in the game. Nobody paid anything for the Iraqi invasion or for supporting “Arab spring” failed uprisings.


568 reads

Those who don’t take risks should never be involved in making decisions



551 reads

Overestimating tail risks makes sense

It’s perfectly rational to overestimate some tail risks because you can’t consider them in isolation. 

Driving after 2 glasses of wine once will not be extremely dangerous, but doing so every day is.

When you measure tail risks in the laboratory you only consider one tail risks at a time, and that’s why their conclusions are wrong.
Subjects are being rational in overestimating the risk because, chances are, they are likely already running several tail risks in their lives.


400 reads

Mental accounting is correct

Betting harder with money you won and being more conservative with your own money makes sense because that’s how you survive.

Thaler and other behavioral economists don’t get it because they see the world as a one-shot game instead of a series of repeated trades.


381 reads

Minority Rule Is Destroying The West

In societies, minorities can come to dictate the rules to the majority.

This usually happens because of asymmetry or because when the majority is either too flexible, too accommodating, or too indifferent.

A case of asymmetry is between smokers and non-smokers.
A smoker can sit in a smoke-free area but a non-smoker cannot sit in a smoker area, so the non-smokers will prevail even if they are the minority.

However, this can become an issue when the minority prevails because it’s more aggressive or more intolerant.


344 reads

It is the most intolerant person who imposes virtues on others precisely because of that intolerance.

We need to be more than intolerant with some intolerant minorities. The West is currently in the process of committing suicide.



353 reads

Employees Are Broken, Submissive Fellas

Employees display submission by going through years of personal deprivation.
Givin' up 9 hours of one’s time for years, every day is the equivalent of domestication.
And showing up on time every day is the sign of an obedient, housebroken dog.

The question is whether you want to be a housebroken dog or a free wolf.
However, being a wolf comes with risks. Wolves who seek their own paths have skin in the game.


296 reads

It’s intellectual Who Are Jealous of The Super Rich

it’s not the poor who are actually envious of the rich and it’s not the poor who first embrace communist movements.

It’s usually the bourgeois and the intellectuals and the clerical class who first embrace communism. It’s because of jealousy.


304 reads

The Idiocy of Naive Empiricism

You often hear people saying that you are more likely to die by X silly thing -ie.: coconut falling- than by terrorist attacks or Ebola outbreaks but that makes no sense.

People dying because of falling coconuts or people who die by drowning in their bathtub will never double from one year to the other -they are examples of mediocre stand-.

But the effects from events in an extreme stand, say a huge virus outbreak or a series of terrorist attacks, can increase the death toll by several orders of magnitude.


294 reads



Hammack lover. Especially with a good book in hand.

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