The Two Big Errors
There are two big errors in traditional economic analysis. The first mistake is regarding recession as the main indication of economic slowdown. Recession is identified by GDP, but by the time the decline has hit GDP and it reflects the slowdown, significant portions of the economy are already damaged.
The second mistake is the practice of tracking economic data quarter to quarter and month to month. This causes a lot of noise; there are lots of adjustments that have to be made to the data. Year-to-year tracking is better.
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Ahead of the Curve will arm you with the knowledge you need to deflect useless theories and reject hype. Economic analysis can be a do-it-yourself activity. Instead of tracking absolute increases and declines, the methods in this book look at changes in growth to make economic forecasts. The tools are based entirely on examining historical data for recurring patterns.
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