Recessions are infrequent. Slowdowns are more important, and when you look at the numbers during these periods, GDP growth is actually inhibited more than you’d imagine if you were just looking at recessions. Recessions are bogeymen. Declining rates of growth are the real culprit.
Recessions might have some value in predicting the beginning of a new cycle, but that’s about it.
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Ahead of the Curve will arm you with the knowledge you need to deflect useless theories and reject hype. Economic analysis can be a do-it-yourself activity. Instead of tracking absolute increases and declines, the methods in this book look at changes in growth to make economic forecasts. The tools are based entirely on examining historical data for recurring patterns.
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