Too much reliance on recession as an indicator is one problem; the second problem is the standard practice of measuring the change in short-term increments– periods so short they can disguise larger trends.
The noisy, quarterly charts with wild swings of data and little context are confusing. The better solution is year-over-year charting, which makes trends much easier to spot.
Since recessions have been dethroned a new milepost is needed:
The rate of change economic tracking (ROCET), tracking turning points in growth, rather than absolute levels, to help make economic forecasts.
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Ahead of the Curve will arm you with the knowledge you need to deflect useless theories and reject hype. Economic analysis can be a do-it-yourself activity. Instead of tracking absolute increases and declines, the methods in this book look at changes in growth to make economic forecasts. The tools are based entirely on examining historical data for recurring patterns.
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