Leading indicators cycle through several phases. Starting with the last phase of the previous cycle.
It’s important to use the right leading indicators. The cause-and-effect relationship should make sense. When they’re charted out together, a causal relationship should be easy to see. But remember: there’s sometimes difficulty knowing if two things have a causal relationship or if the correlation is just casual. You need to evaluate the evidence as best you can.
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Ahead of the Curve will arm you with the knowledge you need to deflect useless theories and reject hype. Economic analysis can be a do-it-yourself activity. Instead of tracking absolute increases and declines, the methods in this book look at changes in growth to make economic forecasts. The tools are based entirely on examining historical data for recurring patterns.
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