It’s dangerous to imagine that you’re looking at unique circumstances and that on this occasion the usual pattern won’t hold. Chances are good that you’re wrong. Look at charts of historical data — you will see these same patterns. Of course, there are unique variations with iterations of each cycle, but the cause and effect relationships stay the same.
Capital spending is driven by consumer spending — not the other way around. Capital outlay includes things like facilities and equipment costs. Usually, it’s after growth has been up for a few quarters that companies will update their capacity.
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Ahead of the Curve will arm you with the knowledge you need to deflect useless theories and reject hype. Economic analysis can be a do-it-yourself activity. Instead of tracking absolute increases and declines, the methods in this book look at changes in growth to make economic forecasts. The tools are based entirely on examining historical data for recurring patterns.
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