There are lots of different things that influence consumer spending. There are financial factors (for example, wage and consumer borrowing), fiscal and monetary factors (for example, taxes and interest rates) and there are psychological factors (for example, war, terrorism and instability). There are all different factors, and because there are so many diverse factors, it’s important to focus on a few indicators. Try to find factors that are rooted in common sense and that are proven to have causality over several cycles.
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Ahead of the Curve will arm you with the knowledge you need to deflect useless theories and reject hype. Economic analysis can be a do-it-yourself activity. Instead of tracking absolute increases and declines, the methods in this book look at changes in growth to make economic forecasts. The tools are based entirely on examining historical data for recurring patterns.
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Consumer spending dominates the economy. Because it is such a large share of GDP, it drives corporate profits — and corporate profits, as we saw, drive employment. The stock market is a predictive indicator, moving up and down with consumer spending.
Consumer spending forecasts, then, can...
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