To figure out the relationship between the federal deficit and interest rates, you have to remember that federal debt is just one category of all the debt in the economy.
There’s also state and local government debt, not to mention consumer debt and corporate debt. In fact, of all the debt in the economy, only 18% is federal debt. By itself, federal debt doesn’t seem to have much of an influence on interest rates, but all debt combined most definitely does.
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Ahead of the Curve will arm you with the knowledge you need to deflect useless theories and reject hype. Economic analysis can be a do-it-yourself activity. Instead of tracking absolute increases and declines, the methods in this book look at changes in growth to make economic forecasts. The tools are based entirely on examining historical data for recurring patterns.
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