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The Planning Fallacy
Think about the last task you completed. Did it take you around the time you’d estimated? Probably not.
Our perceptions of our available time, our abilities, and any roadblocks we may hit are greatly skewed. This is a phenomenon called the planning fallacy and it happens to professionals at all levels and in every occupation. What can we do along the way to keep us on target and help us meet our goals?
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Optimism Bias
Research shows that we often underestimate the time and obstacles involved in completing a task even when it directly contradicts our past experiences.
This can be explained by our optimism bias — our natural tendency to believe that the future will somehow be be...
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370 reads
Overcome the Planning Fallacy
- The next time you find yourself struggling to estimate, ask: How much time and effort have similar tasks required in the past?
- Schedule buffer time: Keep in mind that there will always be factors outside of your control, and moreover, you may very...
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The Planning Fallacy
The Planning Fallacy is a prediction error that one repeatedly makes, misestimating the time it takes to complete a certain task.
This usually happens when trying to complete an unpleasant or stressful task, leading to postponement, procrastination and eventually missed de...
The planning fallacy
The term 'planning fallacy' was coined in 1977 and deals with how most of us are terrible at estimating how long a project will take. We are overly optimistic but terrible at predicting the future. If the project has a budget, we may underestimate that expense to...
Future Time: Planning Fallacy
We show optimism towards future time, when we are in a delusion of ‘planning fallacy’, believing we have more time in the future. Our current mindset is a forecast on how we would be doing in the coming days, and if we are busy, stressed out and confused now, that’s how the next few days will loo...
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