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The Planning Fallacy
Think about the last task you completed. Did it take you around the time you’d estimated? Probably not.
Our perceptions of our available time, our abilities, and any roadblocks we may hit are greatly skewed. This is a phenomenon called the planning fallacy and it happens to professionals at all levels and in every occupation. What can we do along the way to keep us on target and help us meet our goals?
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Optimism Bias
Research shows that we often underestimate the time and obstacles involved in completing a task even when it directly contradicts our past experiences.
This can be explained by our optimism bias — our natural tendency to believe that the future will somehow be better than the past.
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Overcome the Planning Fallacy
- The next time you find yourself struggling to estimate, ask: How much time and effort have similar tasks required in the past?
- Schedule buffer time: Keep in mind that there will always be factors outside of your control, and moreover, you may very well be overestimating your capabilities.
- Commit early and publicly: Give yourself a little bit of external commitment pressure in order to not leave all of your work to the last minute.
- Assume the worst: Start by imagining what will go wrong before it actually does. By doing so, you’ll be better able to foresee potential (if unlikely) issues. And you’ll be equipped to develop a suitable backup plan as a preventative measure.
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