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Few major technologies emerge suddenly.
They’re usually the product of gradual tinkering and experimentation, with engineers and designers puttering around for years or even decades. Things get slowly refined, and the new tech starts being used in real-world circumstances, but mostly in niche areas.
Eventually, some mass-market inventor notices these niche uses and realizes huh, this tech really works now. They build it into a mainstream product — which bursts into truly mass adoption.
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MORE IDEAS ON THIS
If you wanted to predict the Next Big Thing, the Long Nose theory suggests that you don’t need to look in top-secret corporate innovation labs or in the latest scientific literature.
No, you look in the world around you. You go “prospecting and mining” — and see wh...
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The long nose of tech shows that it is under the radar, out of the mainstream for years, even decades, until the technology is refined and then mass-adopted.
The X-axis is time; the Y-axis is adoption. During the long period when the technology is being refined, it’s not very widespread. Th...
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