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How New Tech Gets Adopted
Few major technologies emerge suddenly.
They’re usually the product of gradual tinkering and experimentation, with engineers and designers puttering around for years or even decades. Things get slowly refined, and the new tech starts being used in real-world circumstances, but mostly in niche areas.
Eventually, some mass-market inventor notices these niche uses and realizes huh, this tech really works now. They build it into a mainstream product — which bursts into truly mass adoption.
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The Long Nose Of Innovative Tech
The long nose of tech shows that it is under the radar, out of the mainstream for years, even decades, until the technology is refined and then mass-adopted.
The X-axis is time; the Y-axis is adoption. During the long period when the technology is being refined, it’s not very widespread. Then suddenly it bursts into mass adoption.
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Looking For The Next Big Thing
If you wanted to predict the Next Big Thing, the Long Nose theory suggests that you don’t need to look in top-secret corporate innovation labs or in the latest scientific literature.
No, you look in the world around you. You go “prospecting and mining” — and see what tools are already being eagerly used in areas that lie just outside the mainstream. Those are the technologies that are being stress-tested to the point where they’re ripe to become a mass phenomenon. And you look for something that has that element of “surprising obviousness.”
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