The ‘Long Nose’ Theory of Tech Innovation

Few major technologies emerge suddenly.

They’re usually the product of gradual tinkering and experimentation, with engineers and designers puttering around for years or even decades. Things get slowly refined, and the new tech starts being used in real-world circumstances, but mostly in niche areas.

Eventually, some mass-market inventor notices these niche uses and realizes huh, this tech really works now. They build it into a mainstream product — which bursts into truly mass adoption.

The long nose of tech shows that it is under the radar, out of the mainstream for years, even decades, until the technology is refined and then mass-adopted.

The X-axis is time; the Y-axis is adoption. During the long period when the technology is being refined, it’s not very widespread. Then suddenly it bursts into mass adoption.