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ANNIE DUKE

“Improving decision quality is about increasing our chances of good outcomes, not guaranteeing them.”

ANNIE DUKE

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created an idea from a book:

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This is how we think we form our beliefs:

Even when people experience the same event at the same time, if you ask them about it, you will often get two very different accounts about what happened.

It is important to have a go-to group of people with a common interest in thinking in bets.

  • Express uncertainty: If we start by making clear our uncertainty, our audience is more likely to understand that the discussion held does not always have to be about right or wrong but about openness to different perspectives.
  • Lead with assent: Every...

Life is not like chess. Chess contains no hidden information and very little luck.

Scenario planning is a productive skill to develop in decision making because:

Resulting means judging the quality of a decision based on the quality of the result.

A bet is a decision about an uncertain future. Thus, most of the decisions in your life – switching jobs, choosing a partner, selecting your field of study, not doing something – are bets.

People are better at recognizing biased reasoning in others but are blind to bias in themselves. 

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