Ideas from books, articles & podcasts.
“What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge. That state of knowledge, in turn, is some variation of ‘I’m not sure.’”
MORE IDEAS FROM THE SAME BOOK
Even when people experience the same event at the same time, if you ask them about it, you will often get two very different accounts about what happened.
It is important to have a go-to group of people with a common interest in thinking in bets.
Life is not like chess. Chess contains no hidden information and very little luck.
A bet is a decision about an uncertain future. Thus, most of the decisions in your life – switching jobs, choosing a partner, selecting your field of study, not doing something – are bets.
People are better at recognizing biased reasoning in others but are blind to bias in themselves.
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