This is how we think we form our beliefs:

• We hear something
• We think about it and then determine whether if it is true or false
• We form our belief

This is how we actually form our beliefs:

Life is not like chess. Chess contains no hidden information and very little luck.

Life is more like poker. You could make the smartest, most careful decision and still have it blow up in your face.

Scenario planning is a productive skill to develop in decision making because:

• It reminds us that the future is uncertain, giving a more realistic view of the world
• It prepares us for how to respond to different outcomes that might respond from our initial decisions
• Ant...

• Express uncertainty: If we start by making clear our uncertainty, our audience is more likely to understand that the discussion held does not always have to be about right or wrong but about openness to different perspectives.
• Lead with assent: Every...

A bet is a decision about an uncertain future. Thus, most of the decisions in your life – switching jobs, choosing a partner, selecting your field of study, not doing something – are bets.

They’re choices that you make in the face of an uncertain future.

Even when people experience the same event at the same time, if you ask them about it, you will often get two very different accounts about what happened.

That’s because the way we interpret the world is not only a function of the objective experience but includes how we see and ch...

It is important to have a go-to group of people with a common interest in thinking in bets.

The characteristics of a good group to practice truth-seeking with:

• A focus on accuracy (over confirmation), which includes rewarding truth-seeking, objectivity, and open-mindedness wi...