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Daniel S.
@danss667
Biases and human intelligence
- People who are aware of their own biases are not better able to overcome them. Our intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy.
- According to scientists, intelligent people have a larger bias blind spot. They can spot systematic flaws in others, but not in themselves. They will excuse their own minds but harshly judge the minds of other people.
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Aurora M.
@aurbm231
The nature of the human judgment
People are not accustomed to thinking hard. They are often satisfied with a plausible answer that comes quickly to mind.
The prospect theory - the empirical exploration of ...
The two-system theory
There are two thinking systems, each with distinct characteristics.
- System 1, or intuition. We think in this way most of the time. We respond to the world in ways that we're not conscious of and don't control. System 1 operations are fast, effortless, associative, and emotionally charged. They're governed by habit, so it's more difficult to modify or control.
- System 2, or reasoning. It is a deliberate reasoning system. It's slower, serial, effortful, and controlled.
The law of small numbers
In statistical thinking, professional statisticians informally think the degree of the probability distribution in a small group will closely resemble the probability distribution in the overall population.
In other words, even people who should know better make these mistakes. When they're not computing seriously in System 2 mode (reasoning), they rely on their intuitions for simple problems.
Liza Mills
@lizamm0
7 Overlooked Biases That Creep Into Your Work (And Undermine Its Success)
Biases...
... specifically cognitive biases, are your unchecked tendencies to make decisions or take actions in an irrational way.
Instead of making decisions based on facts and data, you ...
Biases = shortcuts for processing information
The brain creates shortcuts in order to make fast decisions when it hits information or inspiration overload.
These shortcuts form unconscious biases so it’s easier for your brain to categorize information and make quick judgments over and over again.
Self-serving Bias
This means that when something good happens, you take the credit, but when something bad happens, you blame it on external factors.
Self-serving bias may manifest at work when you receive critical feedback. Instead of keeping an open mind, you may put up a defense when your manager or team member is sharing feedback or constructive criticism.
Caleb E.
@caleb_e76
Unlikely Optimism: The Conjunctive Events Bias
The conjunctive events bias
We often overestimate the likelihood of events that must happen in conjunction with one another.
We are optimistic in our estimation of the cost and schedule and surprised when somethi...
Conjunctive events
- Broader categories are always more probable than their subsets. It's more likely someone has a pet than they have a cat. It's more likely someone likes coffee than they like cappuccinos. The extension rule in probability theory thus states that if B is a subset of A, B cannot be more probable than A.
- Likewise, the probability of A and B cannot be higher than the probability of A or B. It is more probable that Linda is a bank teller than that she is a bank teller and active in the feminist movement.
The best plans often fail
A plan is like a system. A change in one component of a system will likely impact the functionality of other parts of the system.
The more steps involved in a plan, the higher the chance that something will go wrong and cause delays and setbacks. For this reason, home remodeling and new product ventures seldom finish on time.
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